EUROPEAN DIARY:There is still little consensus over who should fill the new positions of European Council president and foreign policy chief
EU LEADERS are coming under mounting pressure to settle quickly their biggest political appointments in a generation. They will make a final attempt at a special summit on Thursday night to choose their first permanent president and a new foreign policy chief, but consensus remains elusive.
The appointees will be tasked with driving forward the EU’s work on the world stage as the union seeks advantage in global affairs in the face of US might and China’s inexorable rise.
The posts will be politically charged from the outset, given the economic crisis, threats to security, and divisions over policies to contain global warming.
Although the creation of these jobs was the centrepiece of the reform package in the Lisbon Treaty, the urgency of the political push to ratify the document in 27 states now stands at odds with the slow progress in making the appointments.
After years of gestation that were marked by controversy, the treaty is due to come into force within days. As the clock ticks towards December 1st, it now seems that filling these powerful and symbolically important vacancies will be left until the 11th hour.
"It's a historic event and the absence of preparation is extraordinary," wrote former French president Valéry Giscard d'Estaing in Le Pointmagazine.
But amid lingering divisions over the personalities best suited to the jobs, the process appears to be in some disarray. Weeks of informal talks behind the scenes have proved fruitless, with no sign yet that Europe’s political leaders are ready to throw their weight behind a single candidate for either job.
Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, manager of the process as holder of the EU’s six-month rotating presidency, has already conceded that he may not achieve unanimous support for either appointee.
In such a case, he would have to resort to a qualified majority vote of EU leaders, potentially weakening the mandate of the appointees.
Reinfeldt has been burning up the phone lines between Stockholm and the 26 other EU capitals, scheduling four calls an hour with his counterparts.
Each round of consultations takes roughly two days, opening potential for confusion and leaving little scope for a quick fix.
Crucial in the deadlock is the sense that the leaders ultimately chosen in both cases will set the tone and traditions for the jobs.
From the early running, therefore, it seems that the presidency will go to a low-key figure from the centre right, while the holder of the foreign affairs post will go to a diplomatic “big beast”. This person – who will also serve as vice-president of the European Commission – must be capable of forcefully projecting the EU and its views in the global arena.
An implicit understanding with the European Parliament that the foreign post will go to a centre-left candidate – to counterbalance the centre-right credentials of commission president José Manuel Barroso – adds further complexity.
These assumptions flow in part from the virtual elimination of former British prime minister Tony Blair from the running for the presidency and the ascent of Herman van Rompuy, the Belgian prime minister.
Van Rompuy is a chairman-like conciliator so his status as front-runner suggests the job will go to someone with the same political style even if he fails to garner enough support.
Britain promoted Blair on the basis that his global profile would be sufficient to stop the traffic in Beijing. Although a joke doing the rounds in Brussels says van Rompuy would scarcely stop the traffic on the roundabout outside the commission’s Berlaymont building, the principle of the job going to a small country seems well-established at this point.
Either way, van Rompuy appears to find favour with many in the process because his background and political history finds “least offence” with his colleagues. This too is a guiding principle.
Another contender for the presidency is Vaira Vike-Freiberga, a former Latvian president who may be a beneficiary of the push to increase female representation in top EU jobs.
While senior EU sources say her nascent candidacy has been gaining ground, they say she remains an outside prospect at best.
In the race for the foreign post, the rise of British foreign secretary David Miliband – who said last week he did not want the job – suggests the position will go to a figure with a significant international presence.
Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt is in the running but his pro-Turkey views may cause trouble with French president Nicolas Sarkozy.
Similarly, the Finnish European enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn, may be blocked by a sense in EU circles that Nordic countries are not “due” a prime post in the current negotiations.
Reinfeldt himself has said he must balance the views of big states and little states, northern and southern powers, eastern and western countries, and the demands of the right and the left.
However, informed sources in Brussels suggested yesterday that Britain’s push to take one of the jobs may yet determine the final shake-out.
