The debate over the next two days will be on the exact legal form of the guarantees, writes JAMIE SMYTHin Brussels
EU LEADERS meet today for a summit expected to provide Ireland with the guarantees it needs to hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Following months of painstaking preparatory work by Irish and EU officials, an agreement by all 27 EU heads of state on the wording of the text is all but assured.
But there will be a debate over the exact legal form of the guarantees, a decision that will ultimately be decided by EU leaders. Taoiseach Brian Cowen wants his counterparts to agree to issue a decision at the summit to make the Irish guarantees legally binding. But he also wants them to guarantee that they will ratify a new protocol on the guarantees through their parliaments when the next EU treaty is completed.
If all member states agree to ratify an Irish protocol alongside a future Croatian accession treaty, the guarantees on ethical issues such as abortion, the family and education, neutrality and taxation would then become enshrined in the text of the EU treaties.
Irish diplomats say this would provide the type of “belt and braces” assurances that would help the Government win a Yes vote in a second Lisbon referendum in the autumn.
Getting assurances on a protocol would severely weaken the No campaign’s insistence that not a word of the treaty will change when the public votes again. It would also remove any lingering doubts over the legal status of a decision made by heads of state when compared to a protocol attached to the EU treaties, something which is primary EU law.
French president Nicolas Sarkozy spoke of protocols when he chaired the EU summit in December last year, telling journalists that EU leaders had committed to adding a protocol to the Croatian accession treaty.
Whether this is true is debatable. This was one of the issues British prime minister Gordon Brown raised with Cowen last December when, on the evening of that summit, he refused to sign off on the conclusions. In the end, the summit conclusions did not mention protocols or Croatia.
Since December, domestic political pressure on Brown has increased, while the electorate has become more Eurosceptic, judging by the recent election results, when Labour came behind the Tories and UK Independence Party. The last thing Brown wants is to pledge that the House of Commons will shortly ratify a protocol giving Ireland guarantees on Lisbon. He fears this will simply hand the Tories further ammunition to batter him over his decision not to put the treaty to a vote in Britain.
Protocols are also causing problems for Poland, the Netherlands, Slovenia and even the Czech Republic, which is chairing the summit as the current EU president.
The Poles and the Czechs fear any mention of a new protocol could inspire their Eurosceptic presidents to refuse to sign the treaty to complete ratification in their own countries, even after an Irish Yes vote. The Slovenes do not like the idea of linking anything to a future Croatian accession treaty because they are blocking its accession talks because of a bilateral dispute over a few kilometres of coastline.
The Dutch, who voted down the precursor to Lisbon – the EU constitution – want the entire debate over the Lisbon Treaty and EU integration to end as soon as possible.
In the tradition of EU summits, a compromise will be sought, and most likely found. For example, protocols may not appear in the summit conclusions but there could be language making it clear the guarantees will at some point be enshrined in the text of the EU treaties.
EU leaders will also consider whether to renominate European Commission president José Manuel Barroso for a second five-year term. Legal difficulties caused by Ireland’s rejection of the Lisbon Treaty have complicated the procedure.
Most states now favour following a procedure that involves consulting MEPs before making a formal nomination, which is envisaged under Lisbon. The fear is that going ahead and making a formal nomination at the summit could provoke MEPs to vote down Barroso when they meet for the first plenary session of the new parliament in July.
The proposed solution is for a political decision to be taken tomorrow, followed by consultations with the political groups in the parliament. If the groups say a majority of MEPs can support Barroso, then EU leaders will provide a formal written nomination in early July to enable the parliament to vote on his candidature on July 15th.
Whether Barroso needs a further parliamentary vote in the autumn if Lisbon enters into force is a tricky legal question that can wait until then, according to most European diplomats.
EU leaders will also debate whether a proposed new EU financial supervisory body overseeing banks should be given legally binding powers over national regulators. Britain, which fears the proposals could hurt the City, faces a tough battle on this front, with even former allies such as Ireland now prepared to share sovereignty on this sensitive area.