Analysis/Fine Gael European campaign: Fine Gael desperately needs success in Dublin, writes Arthur Beesley, Political Reporter.
Mr Enda Kenny appeared confident yesterday as Fine Gael published its manifesto for the European elections. Facing into his first election as leader, his performance will be judged by Fine Gael's ability to capitalise on disaffection with the Government.
With tentative moves under way to form a General Election alliance with Labour and the Greens, the poll on June 11th will signal whether Fine Gael has stopped the rot that led to its election disaster in 2002.
Mr Kenny yesterday set a minimum target of four seats for the party in the European elections. The party is using high-profile candidates such as Mr Gay Mitchell, Mr Simon Coveney, Ms Avril Doyle and Ms Maireád McGuinness. However, it is the local election campaign that will measure how work for the next General Election has progressed.
Mr Kenny recognised as much yesterday when he spoke confidently of Mr Mitchell's campaign in Dublin, despite the 2002 meltdown which left the party with only three Dáil seats in Dublin.
"We have recognised following the last general election that Fine Gael have some serious difficulties in Dublin. I've often made the point that when I was elected myself in 1975 the party had 22 seats in Dublin ...
"In the restructuring of the internal mechanics of the party ... we've gone about our business in identifying candidates who would win through in the local elections and have the capacity and the potential to win Dáil seats and we are very serious about that," he said.
Mr Kenny said he expected Mr Mitchell to mount a "very serious challenge" in the European elections but he recognised the scale of the task facing the party. The party desperately needs a success in Dublin next month if it is to start something approaching a visible revival.
In the South constituency, the departure of Mr Pat Cox has lifted Mr Coveney's prospects. Ms McGuinness and Ms Doyle have been highly visible in the East but Fianna Fáil has yet to get fully into gear there. Senator Jim Higgins is the party's best hope in the North-West, but the performance of Independents Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon and Ms Marian Harkin will have a strong bearing on his prospects.
If the European elections are the big picture poll for Fine Gael, its manifesto contains ideas about foreign policy that are certain to alienate its putative partners in Labour and the Greens, as it suggests that Ireland should participate in a common European security and defence pact.