SOUTH AFIRCA: The South African election is a foregone conclusion, writes Declan Walsh in Johannesburg
The headline said it all. Before even one vote has been cast in next week's South African election, the Mail and Guardian brassily predicted the result: "How the ANC won the election." There's little chance it will be wrong.
Faced with a splintered opposition and still cashing in on its liberation dividend, only a seismic upset could rob the African National Congress of victory in next Wednesday's poll. The latest estimates give President Thabo Mbeki's party 65 per cent of votes, a little more than Nelson Mandela garnered in the historic first election a decade ago.
Now the election question hinges on second place: which party will gobble most of the ANC's crumbs, and what role race will play in dividing the vote.
Elsewhere in Africa, such a foregone conclusion would stink of authoritarian politics, intimidated opponents and a rotten election system.
South Africans have no such fears. The national electoral commission has completed a smart, computerised count centre, and rigging is considered such a remote possibility that the EU and UN are not even bothering to deploy poll monitors.
Such is South Africa's democratic miracle. As decades of racist white rule drew to a close 10 years ago, such a bright future was far from certain.
Nervy tension and violence overshadowed campaigning as white extremists planted car-bombs near ANC headquarters and secretly plotted the overthrow of any new black government.
Bloody confrontations in the townships between the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party resulted in thousands of deaths. In the leafy suburbs middle-class whites, faced with the prospect of evaporating privilege, stockpiled food or prepared to flee the country.
Today the ANC's main headache is winning the two provinces it failed to capture last time. But electoral success does not necessarily equal popularity. Although some blacks have done well in the past decade, most remain miserably poor. A fiscally conservative economic policy has brought steady growth, low inflation and plaudits from western economists, but failed dismally to create jobs.
About 40 per cent of South Africans are unemployed in a society with a glaring gap second only to Brazil.
A poll last October found 70 per cent of blacks felt the ANC had failed to deliver its promises. Election support slipped in rural areas in the 1999 elections, a trend analysts predict will continue this time.
Even Mr Mbeki's mother, Epainette, agrees with the criticism. "I stand on the side of the people," she told a reporter at her rural home this week.
But most blacks, who make up three-quarters of South Africa's 45 million people, remain emotionally indebted to the ANC for ending white rule in 1994. Most will display their gratitude at the ballot-box, a bedrock of support the opposition is desperate to erode.
The main contenders should be the Democratic Alliance party, led by its pugilistic leader, Tony Leon. To leverage its strength the DA has formed an unlikely coalition with the Inkatha Freedom Party of Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, whose power base is in KwaZulu-Natal province.
An aggressive opposition leader, Mr Leon regularly lambastes Mr Mbeki over perceived failings such as Aids, crime and his reluctance to criticise the dictatorial President Robert Mugabe in neighbouring Zimbabwe.
But analysts say Mr Leon will have trouble shaking the perception that his is a white-dominated party. Instead the rising opposition star is Patricia de Lille, the feisty leader of the smaller Independent Democrats Party.
South Africa's best-known female politician, Ms de Lille has a penchant for stinging soundbites and publicity stunts designed to embarrass the ANC. As a coloured woman, she can appeal to liberal whites and blacks alike. But her popularity is largely untested, and her predictions of 10 per cent support are viewed with scepticism.
The ANC has countered opposition offensives with some deft electioneering. Mr Mbeki, widely seen as an aloof and stubborn intellectual, led a countrywide neighbourhood canvassing campaign. The stiff President, previously averse to baby-kissing, has been photographed handing out pamphlets and wearing out shoe leather going door-to-door, listening to voter concerns.
Although this is a clear part of a PR offensive to endow Mr Mbeki with a common touch, voters have responded warmly. A notable campaign absence, however, has been his predecessor, Mr Mandela.
As the lionised father of the nation, the ANC might have been expected to capitalise on his stature to solidify its vote. Party strategists say they are avoiding over-reliance on the ageing Nobel Prize winner. However, his well-documented antipathy towards Mr Mbeki is probably also a factor.
Nevertheless when South Africa's next president is inaugurated on April 27th there is little doubt that Mr Mbeki will be stepping forward.