The by-elections to fill the two Seanad vacancies are now not expected until February. However, already full-scale campaigns for the two Government nominations are being undertaken by a number of hopeful individuals, because with 118 votes against 106, the Government candidates can't lose.
The vacancies arise because of the resignation of Labour's Pat Gallagher and the death of FF's Paddy McGowan. As the whips are in the process of agreeing a joint election-date which would see the writs being moved when the Seanad returns in January, the party strategists are considering which candidates would maximise the vote and lay down a foundation for the future.
The electorate is confined to Oireachtas members, so the Labour whip in the Seanad, Joe Costello, accepts that with the Taoiseach's 11 senators the Government has the numbers to win both seats. "It's a bit unfair, this in-built artificial majority. It would make a lot more sense to co-opt into vacancies." Labour is looking for a candidate with cross-party appeal to draw in as many independents as possible. Costello thinks trade unionist Jimmy Somers, who retired this week, would be good, or someone from the North. Fine Gael has a similar view and is looking to get Labour agreement on a joint candidate.
As a second candidate, both parties are considering people who, with an increased profile, might win a seat in the next general election. Labour is looking at the likes of Declan Bree, Sean Moloney, Joan Burton and Niamh Bhreathnach.
The PDs are unlikely to run any candidate, since at the formation of the Government a deal was done, giving them four Seanad seats. So the lucky duo FF select are certain to win the day. M.J. Nolan in Carlow is being considered, as well as Michael Kennedy in Dublin North, Michael Mulcahy in Dublin South Central, Joe Callanan in Galway East, Peter Kelly in Longford and a host of others. One of the late Paddy McGowan's sons is also a possible runner.