FRANCE:To understand how the French in Ireland will vote in this weekend's presidential election, one issue, expats say, is paramount. Dubbed "la fuite des jeunes" - the exodus of the young - it has been the cause of much recent hand-wringing in the French media.
Commentators lament the hundreds of thousands of French graduates who have left their homeland in recent years, swapping a stagnant economy and chronic unemployment for greater opportunities abroad. Many have come to Ireland, mostly to pursue further study or to work for multinational companies.
"We've seen a huge increase in the number of young French people moving to Ireland. Many of them come here because they don't have work in France," says Hélène Conway, selected by the French community to represent its views in Paris. "They will eventually want to return, so the economy is a big issue in this election."
Some 8,000 French nationals have registered with the embassy here, but officials estimate the number living in Ireland stands at about 30,000. Almost 90 per cent are under 40-years-old and more than a third fit in the 18-30 age bracket.
The growing French diaspora - estimated at two million-plus worldwide - and its potential voting muscle has not gone unnoticed. Presidential candidates have sent e-mails to expats seeking their vote, pledging to create a country they might like to return to. Some have gone on the stump in countries with large French communities - centre-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy held one rally in London, while centrist François Bayrou's team campaigned in Britain, Switzerland and Germany.
A total of 3,800 French nationals living in Ireland are registered to vote, according to embassy figures. The huge numbers aged under 40 could prove crucial in the way the vote from Ireland turns.
In last month's first round, polling took place in Dublin and Cork. Of the 1,416 who queued for hours to vote at the embassy in Dublin, 465 voted for Socialist Party candidate Ségolène Royal, with centrist candidate François Bayrou garnering 401 votes and Nicolas Sarkozy finishing third on 395. A similar voting pattern emerged among the 170 people who voted in Cork.
The 20-something vote played a central role in Royal's inching ahead in Ireland, says Hélène MacElroy, a lecturer at DIT who acts as Royal's representative here. "These voters range from early 20s to 30 and tend to be more idealistic, more liberal in their outlook," she explains.
Sarkozy's weak showing here can be put down to several factors, not least the lack of a strong party network in Ireland, says Arnaud Clopin, a sales manager in Wexford, who acts as UMP organiser here. The French expat population in Ireland is very different in its make-up from that in Britain, he says.
"Here we have a younger student-heavy population. A typical UMP voter abroad tends to be in a middle or higher management position, well settled and between 28- and 40-years-old. There are more of those in Britain, particularly in London."
Whatever the result, supporters of both candidates here agree this presidential election has engaged voters far more than the last, with turnout in Ireland double that of 2002.