Council profile: Co Longford FG will likely win that extra seat it needs while FF risks losing one, writes Tim O'Brien
The big issue in the local elections in Co Longford is whether Fine Gael - which has 10 of the 21 seats on Longford County Council - can gain an extra seat to give the party outright control of the council.
Currently the party has effective control and has relied in the past on the support of Independents to give it supremacy. The party holds the positions of mayor and vice-mayor thanks to such support.
Most of the parties agree the main tussle will be fought in Mid-Longford, where Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats have both targeted the seat of Independent Mr Peter Murphy, whose support has been enjoyed by Fine Gael in the past.
Fianna Fáil had three of the seven seats here until Cllr Michael Nevin left the party. The party is now standing its two remaining councillors plus three new candidates, giving a total of five chasing the seven seats.
Fine Gael's two councillors in Mid-Longford, Alan Mitchell and Victor Kiernan, are well entrenched and the party hopes to add sitting town councillor Peggy Nolan. Given that strong performances should come from the Progressive Democrats' Mr Liam Madden and the Green Party candidate Mr Parvez Butt, Fianna Fáil's optimism might look misplaced.
In three-seater Drumlish, Fianna Fáil will attempt to take a seat from long-time councillor Seán Lynch of Republican Sinn Féin. Mr Ciarán Grimes of Sinn Féin will also be contesting. Apart from Mr Lynch, the incumbents are Fianna Fáil's Mr Louie McEntire and Fine Gael's Mr Gerry Brady, the current mayor.
Fianna Fáil came within five votes of removing Mr Lynch in 1999 and is hoping Mr Martin Mulleady can clinch it this time. The PDs' Peter Prunty will also be seeking the seat.
In the Ballymahon electoral area Fine Gael currently has four out of six seats, and Fianna Fáil the remaining two.
The tussle is likely to be for the final seat, with the possibility of Mr P.J. Walsh slipping in to take a seat for the PDs.
In the Granard local area there are five seats, currently occupied by three Fianna Fáil and two Fine Gael councillors. Again the PDs have a candidate in Mr Declan Fox but most commentators foresee no change.
On the Fianna Fáil side the decision to run 15 candidates for 21 seats must be seen to be a bit optimistic.
But whether this is enough to let Fine Gael slip in and steal the extra seat necessary to that party's bid for overall control remains to be seen.
It could be that it opens the door to the PDs, who are standing a candidate in each of the four electoral areas, although some commentators said the decision to have the PDs' Ms Mae Sexton TD remain a councillor until the election was a missed opportunity for a possible successor. The other Co Longford-based deputy, Mr Peter Kelly of Fianna Fáil, was replaced some time ago by party colleague Mr Séamus Butler.
Senator James Bannon has vacated his seat in favour of his brother, Mr Larry Bannon.
Underlying the difficulty for the main parties is internal jockeying for position. Some in Fianna Fáil believe that standing 15 candidates for 21 seats was not finely focused enough.
There is also the question of whether the old guard of Albert Reynolds's day will give way sufficiently to "new boys" like Michael Cahill, Martin Mulleady, Séamus Butler and Michael Hegarty.
Underlying Fianna Fáil's difficulty on the doorsteps is the issue of the health service. Many people are angry with what they see as the already downgraded status of Longford hospital.
In Mullingar hospital a new wing remains unopened.
On the Fine Gael side the Dáil nomination for Louis Belton's seat is a factor.
Senator James Bannon is the best positioned but not all believe he would get the old guard Fine Gael support.
In Longford, Cllr Peggy Nolan and Alan Mitchell are both championed as future Dáil deputies, which in itself could cause problems.
Another factor which might be significant is the rise in popularity of Mr Frank Kilbride of Edgeworthstown, a local hotelier who hosts a show on Shannonside Radio. Mr Kilbride is likely to exceed the quota by some distance.
Ultimately it is hard to see how Fine Gael should not be able to maximise the opportunities presented by being in opposition to squeeze another seat out of the election and give the party overall control. Fianna Fáil will probably lose at least one seat, most likely in Mid-Longford.