CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Dublin South-Central: Much changed since 1997, Dublin South Central will prove to be one of the toughest battle grounds, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
Party strategists in nearly all parties have marked the five-seat Dublin South Central constituency down as a gain. Clearly, all bar one will be prove to be disappointed.
In 1997, the then four-seat constituency returned Mr Sean Ardagh and Mr Ben Briscoe for Fianna Fáil, Mr Gay Mitchell for Fine Gael and Mr Pat Upton for Labour.
Today, Mr Briscoe has decided to retire. Mr Upton's sister, Mary, kept the seat for Labour in the 2001 by-election held after Mr Upton's untimely and much mourned death.
Following the 1998 boundary changes, South Central was expanded to take in Ballyfermot, Inchicore, Bluebell and Kilmainham from Dublin Central. Fianna Fáil outgoing TD Ms Marian McGennis came with the transfer.
The move may not prove to be a happy one for McGennis. In 1997, she was returned with the help of the transfers of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern. This time around, voting reinforcements could be scarce on the ground.
Of her running mates, Mr Ardagh, recently back in action after a bout of illness, is expected to be safely returned, but the current Lord Mayor of Dublin, Mr Michael Mulcahy, will have a tougher battle.
Blessed with the higher profile offered by the mayoral robe, Cllr Mulcahy, who was one of Albert Reynolds's Seanad nominees, has blotted his copybook in the eyes of some voters by voting last year for bin charges.
Following Mr Upton's death, the choice of his replacement was sharply complicated by the fact that Democratic Left and Labour had merged in the time between the 1997 election and the by-election.
Though initially the favourite in the eyes of some to run, former DL TD Cllr Eric Byrne eventually lost out to Mr Upton's sister, Mary, in the race to be the party's standard bearer.
In 1997, Mr Byrne lost his Dáil seat by just 217 votes to Mr Upton. Left off the by-election ticket, Mr Byrne, in return, was guaranteed another run at the Dáil. Labour now has high ambitions for two seats.
Regarded as one of the hardest workers in the outgoing Dáil and in the constituency, Fine Gael's Mr Gay Mitchell is as much of a "sure bet" as it is possible to find anywhere in the 42 constituencies.
However, Fine Gael hopes to send the Inchicore-based Cllr Catherine Byrne to Leinster House with Mr Mitchell when the 29th Dáil meets for the first time in early June. A noted community activist, she became a member of Dublin City Council in the 1999 local elections after she took the last seat in the South West Inner City ward with 15.5 per cent of the first preference vote.
So far, Mr Mitchell, who has been joined on the canvass over recent days by members of his family, appears to have thrown at least some of his constituency organisation behind his running mate.
Though not one of Sinn Féin's declared target seats, Dublin South Central, with some of the poorest local authority areas in the country, could not have been drawn better for it if it had done the boundary review itself.
Former An Phoblacht journalist Aengus Ó Snodaigh, now living in Ballyfermot, hopes to improve on the 1,686 first preferences he won in 1999 though, as elsewhere, transfers will be his main problem.
Nevertheless, some private opinion polling by the major parties offered signals that Mr Ó Snodaigh is attracting a youth vote but one which is hugely difficult to get out on election day.
So far, campaign issues on the ground reflect the national trends, though complaints about the lack of social and affordable housing in the area are proving to be a major gripe.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 2.