Ireland can expect a rise in extreme weather conditions, including heavy storms and flooding, in the coming decades, according to a major survey on climate change.
The report, the first of its type conducted in Ireland, predicts a rise in average temperatures across Ireland of up to 1.5 degrees during 2021-60.
The largest increases are expected in the east and southeast, with the greatest warming in July.
Southern counties are also expected to see a 10 per cent decrease in rainfall in June. But, in return, winters will be wetter - with a 10 per cent rise in precipitation in the southeast in December and a 25 per cent rise in the northwest.
"There is also some evidence of an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events [ie events which exceed 20mm or more per day] in the northwest."
In addition, "In the future scenario, the frequency of intense cyclones [ storms] over the North Atlantic area in the vicinity of Ireland is increased by about 15 per cent compared with the current climate."
The study, conducted by Met Éireann and UCD, also included an impact of climate change on river discharge and local flooding in the Suir catchment area.
"The increase in winter precipitation was found to produce a significant increase in the more intense discharge episodes, raising the risk of future flooding in the area."
The predictions were based on a relatively benign "storyline" of economic development whereby the world's population continues to grow but at a moderate rate, and where an emphasis had been placed upon "environmental protection and social equity".
Ray McGrath of Met Éireann confirmed the study would have predicted higher temperature increases if a more aggressive model of economic development had been assumed.
He added temperatures had already varied somewhat in Ireland, rising to a peak in the mid-1940s and then gradually falling off until a further, more rapid rise in the last decade or so.
While there were variations across the country, the Valentia observatory had recorded a 0.6 degree increase in the past 40 years, he added.
Launching the report, entitled Climate Change: Regional Model Predictions for Ireland, Minister for the Environment Dick Roche said the Government would play its part in the international response to global warming. But he ruled out any immediate introduction of carbon taxes. Introducing such charges "would have sent out a good message but it would have jacked up the rate of inflation."
He added long-term savings could be made instead by dealing better with our building regulations and the way we consume energy. "I happen to have a personal hang-up about the time and energy that people waste sitting at traffic lights," he said. "If our local authorities were to actually sequence their traffic lights properly how much energy would we save in that?"
But Green Party environment spokesman Ciarán Cuffe TD said: "If this Government was serious about climate change it would introduce a carbon levy, support renewable energies, and reduce car dependency through major investment in public transport."
Progressive Democrats TD Fiona O'Malley also said "serious action" by Government was needed.
