THE COLLAPSE in the price of oil caused by the worldwide eco- nomic slump is undermining Iraq’s reconciliation efforts at the very time the US is preparing to draw down its troops.
Although the number of security personnel has risen to 610,000, more are needed. However the recruitment of a further 66,000 policemen has been suspended because of the financial squeeze. The result is that few of the 100,000 Sunni fighters from the Awakening Councils, which helped the US defeat al-Qaeda, will, as promised, be inducted into the police force.
Although prime minister Nuri al-Maliki pledged to provide 20 per cent of the Sunni fighters with jobs in the security forces, only 4 to 5 per cent have actually been recruited. The remaining 80 per cent were promised posts in the administration but have not been employed.
Members of the Awakening Councils, 90 per cent of whom are now paid by the government, have not received their salaries of $250 to $300 a month, causing them to be doubly resentful.
Soldiers and policemen earn more than twice the amount paid to the councils’ members, who accuse the Shia-dominated government of sectarianism and discrimination.
Interior minister Jawad al-Bolani said a tight budget has forced his ministry to halt hiring of police, now numbering 500,000. “We hope that by the middle of this year oil prices will increase to bring in funds to help us implement these plans,” he said.
The councils’ officers and soldiers are sceptical. They were supposed to be given jobs last year when the price of oil was $151 (€110) a barrel and cash was pouring into Iraq’s coffers. They also accuse the government of arresting the councils’ fighters on charges of al-Qaeda membership. Although some did belong to Muslim fundamentalist groups, many more were involved in the nationalist resistance. The fighters are threatening to return to armed opposition if the government’s promises are not met.
Iraq’s revenue projections are based on $50 (€37) a barrel for oil exports, which account for 90 per cent of earnings, and the export of two million barrels a day. But the price of oil is uncertain and pro- duction has dropped.
To cover a looming deficit, the government plans to top up the $58.6 billion 2009 budget by drawing $20 billion of $35 billion lodged with US banks. Money allocated for specific projects but not spent has been used elsewhere and foreign investment has fallen.
Security is not the only sector suffering. There are no funds to invest in agriculture and industry or for providing clean water or repairing the electricity network now providing only 52 per cent of demand.
