Failure to agree the full scope of the European Commission's farm price reform proposals in Agenda 2000 would hit Irish farmers hard, the Farm Commissioner, Mr Franz Fischler, warned last night.
Mr Fischler, who will address the Irish Farmers' Association conference this evening, is set to warn that agreement by member-states to cut less than 30 per cent off the guaranteed price for beef would inevitably block exports because of World Trade Organisation rules and lead to surpluses and intervention on the European market.
With Ireland more dependent on exports than any other member- state, such an outcome would clearly not be in Irish farmers' interests, he said.
"Our intention is to implement real reform, but I don't believe that reform without the effects of reform would help farmers," Mr Fischler added.
He said the Commission estimated cuts of 30 per cent in beef prices to world market levels would push up consumption of beef in the EU by 150,000 to 200,000 tons and allow unrestricted access under the next world trade agreement to the world market.
Cuts of only 20 per cent would stimulate only half that internal demand and fail to prise open the door to the world market. The result would be a substantial glut and the necessity for intervention.
The logic was the same for cereals, he said.
But he promised that although the Commission would insist on the need for the full implementation of its prices package - 15 per cent off milk, 20 per cent off cereals and 30 per cent off beef - it could show flexibility on the compensation package.
Mr Fischler admitted the Commission has been asked by member-states to cost proposals from the French to introduce an element of claw-back on direct income payments to farmers and which now seems to provide the most realistic opportunity for a farm agreement in Agenda 2000.
