The number of farmers in the State may fall by as much as 23 per cent over the next 10 years, a conference on rural development has heard.
The Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, Mr Ó Cuív, told the sixth meeting of the National Rural Development Forum that a recent report projected the number of farmers would fall to as low as 105,000 from the present 136,000.
Mr Ó Cuív said that of those remaining farmers, only 30,000 may be able to make a viable living from farming alone.
"In short, moving from the present situation, over 100,000 farmers will either need to find new or maintain present off-farm jobs."
In the case of some farmers, off-farm income supports, such as those provided under the Rural Social Scheme, would be vital.
In the early 1970s, the number of farm holdings in Ireland was more than 225,000, but for a combination of social and domestic reasons this dropped to a low of 136,000 by 2002, the conference heard.
The Minister said some "hard questions" must be asked about how best to promote rural prosperity.
It seemed to him that the development of a diversified rural economy and a consequent increase in spend on non-farming investment was "the only realistic way forward".
Mr Ó Cuív told the conference in Athlone, Co Westmeath, that throughout the EU it had been apparent for some time that agriculture alone could not provide a sufficient income to support the majority of farm families, or indeed to provide the impetus to sustain the economic and social fabric of rural communities.
He said the European Commission had made it clear on completion of the CAP mid-term review last year that the priority for reform from 2007-2013 will be rural development policy.
"With rural areas covering 90 per cent of the territory of the EU and containing over 50 per cent of the population, it is vital that the appropriate balance is achieved between supporting farming and forestry in the management of natural resources and, on the other hand, the need to foster economic diversification in rural communities."
Mr Ó Cuív said he took heart that the Commission's proposals take the "broader view" of rural development.