SRI LANKA: The stalling of peace talks between Tamil Tigers and the government and a spate of tit-for-tat strikes have led to concerns the truce may be over, writes Rahul Bedi in New Delhi
The suicide attack in the Sri Lankan capital that killed 10 people on Tuesday and the retaliatory air strikes by the administration on rebel Tamil Tiger positions have triggered fears that the island republic is returning to civil war after a four-year truce.
The moves suggest that the 2002 Norwegian-brokered ceasefire between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), waging a civil war for an independent homeland in the north and east of the country for nearly a quarter of a century, and the government, exists only on paper.
Nearly 70,000 people have died in the war, which began in 1983.
Analysts and diplomats said that unless the cycle of violence is stopped, it will be difficult to prevent the country from reverting to full-scale war.
And while for the moment both parties insist that they will abide by the ceasefire agreement, tit-for-tat attacks and the prevailing stalemate at the peace talks being held in Geneva will determine the security situation in Sri Lanka over the next few weeks.
"This [suicide] attack is yet another serious blow to the ceasefire agreement and the peace process," the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission said in a statement before the air force launched its attacks on rebel positions in eastern Trincomalee district on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The "deterrent strikes" by Sri Lankan fighters followed attacks on naval patrol boats by the LTTE as well as Tuesday's suicide bombing of the motorcade of Lieut Gen Sarath Fonseka at his headquarters in Colombo. The seriously injured army chief is presently recovering in hospital.
A "Black Tiger" suicide bomber, pretending to be pregnant was reportedly responsible for the attack, in which 10 people died and 26 were wounded.
The LTTE, one of the world's most efficient, ruthless, committed and innovative guerrilla groups, which has successfully taken on the much better equipped Sri Lankan and Indian armies, has long glorified suicide bombings, carrying out the first such attack on an army camp in July 1987.
Meanwhile Sri Lanka's military yesterday said crossing points to Tamil Tiger territory had been reopened and that it had ceased bombing rebel targets.
But it did not rule out more attacks which the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said had displaced thousands of fearful locals who have fled their homes to escape the bombings. Local accounts put the number of refugees fleeing the bombings at around 40,000.
The rebels have so far not reacted to the shelling by the military. But security analysts believe it is only a matter of time before they do.
If violence ceases, diplomats in Colombo said peace talks, stalled in Geneva, might still be possible. If not, many fear the 2002 ceasefire could collapse irretrievably. Last week the Tigers pulled out of the peace talks, accusing the government of attacking Tamil civilians and reneging on an agreement to facilitate internal rebel meetings by refusing to provide military helicopters to the LTTE's eastern commanders to enable them to meet their counterparts in the east.
More than 200 soldiers, rebels and civilians have been killed in various violent incidents across Sri Lanka since last November, for which the LTTE and government forces have held each other responsible.
At the moment, however, Norwegian peace mediators seem to be struggling to bring both parties together. Also, the international ceasefire monitors say their small team of 60 members cannot cope with the escalating violent incidents.
"A massive co-ordinated international effort is needed to contain the situation. Norway alone cannot do that," said Sri Lankan analyst DBS Jeyaraj. Though for the moment both parties insist that they will abide by the ceasefire agreement, it looks like ongoing events may influence their decisions and outcomes.