THE THREAT of serious loyalist attacks is causing concern among security forces on both sides of the Border following the weekend decision by the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) to expel a dissident unit in Portadown, Co Armagh.
There are suspicions that the Portadown unit, led by the unpredictable figure known as "King Rat", might launch a gun attack on a Catholic target if there is a repeat of the loyalist disturbances which surrounded last month's stand-off in Drumcree.
There has been no indication from the Portadown unit, since it was expelled from the UVF at the weekend, about whether or not it will seek to establish itself as a separate loyalist organisation. The unit is blamed for the killing of the Catholic taxi driver, Michael McGoldrick, during the Drumcree siege, the first assassination by loyalists since their ceasefire began in October, 1994.
The Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) is also understood to be actively considering a return to violence. The UVF is said to be growing increasingly restive over the turn of events in Northern Ireland since the ending of the IRA ceasefire in February last.
A source close to the UVF leadership said a return to violence by the organisation was now "not a question of `if' but `when'."
The UVF is the only loyalist paramilitary organisation with the capability to make and detonate bombs. It carried out a car-bomb attack on the Falls Road in September, 1994, prior to calling its ceasefire and twice fried to bomb targets in Dublin in 1994, but on both occasions the bombs failed to detonate.
The expelled UVF unit in Portadown does not have access to explosives or the ability to make bombs, according to the loyalist sources.
The other main loyalist organisation, the Ulster Defence Association (UDA), has indicated that its ceasefire is holding. UDA sources in Belfast said there was no basis in weekend reports that one of its figures, Johnny Adair, who is serving 16 years imprisonment, has voiced support for the dissident loyalist figure in Portadown known as "King Rat". Adair, the UDA says, has stated he remains loyal to the UDA and supports its ceasefire position.
With the exception of the murder of Michael McGoldrick, the loyalist ceasefires, announced under the umbrella group, the Combined Loyalist Military Command (CLMC), have held despite the decision of the IRA to revert to violence. However, elements within the UVF are now known to be questioning the validity of maintaining a ceasefire while the IRA is using violence to pursue its political aims.
The loyalist sources say it is only a matter of time before the IRA extends its campaign, until now restricted to attacks in Britain and against British military bases in Germany, back into Northern Ireland. The loyalist believed the IRA has not extended its campaign to Northern Ireland because it is concerned about its internal security.
If the loyalist ceasefires were to break down, the political wings of the organisations involved would be precluded from the Stormont talks along with the IRA's political wing, Sinn Fein.