SENIOR Garda sources who have been observing the drift back to conflict arising from last month's ending of the IRA "cessation" blame the republican leadership's "pathological" fears of a split.
It is said that fears of a division in the movement actually increased alongside the political and financial benefits which accrued from the ceasefire.
The high profile political gains by Mr Gerry Adams, particularly in the US, concealed growing anger among hardliners who wanted to see faster and further political concessions by the British government and by unionists.
Late last autumn, when it appeared that elements of the IRA in Border areas were prepared to leave the Provisional movement, the leadership opted for the resumption, albeit of a limited nature, of the armed campaign. The split was avoided.
A split in the Provisional republican movement could be extremely dangerous for those concerned.
There is, as gardai point out, a great deal to fight for. Apart from the Provisionals' large arsenal, the movement is believed to have considerable financial assets.
These are said to include involvement in a variety of front businesses and are separate from the increased funding from Irish Americans. At the ardfheis it was stated that more than £500,000 had come from public fundraising in the United States in the past year.
An uncomfortable reminder of the republicans' propensity to split over strongly held views was that the ardfheis marked the 10th anniversary of the last such Sinn Fein schism.
On that occasion Mr Ruairi O Bradaigh led a group of his followers from the party to create Republican Sinn Fein.
That split, over the Issue of abstention from Dail Eireann, was the most significant in Sinn Fein since the Provisionals broke away in 1971 from what became known as the Official republican movement.
Bitter differences remained between Mr O Bradaigh's supporters, who set up Republican Sinn Fein (RSF), and the leadership of Sinn Fein.
A split was avoided on that issue only because the current Provisional leadership was powerful enough and satisfied with Mr Adams's argument that contesting Dail elections and taking seats would not interfere with the armed struggle.
Ia the event, the party failed to have any member elected to the Dail.
The latest decision to return to a bombing campaign in Britain coincided with the announcement by dissident republican elements along the Border that a new military organisation was being formed.
This was reported, in the Republican Sinn Fein newspaper Saoirse, to be under the command of what it described as the "Continuity Army Council". No further word of this group has been heard since the resumption of the IRA campaign.
Some supporters of Mr Adams were optimistic at the weekend about the chance of a renewal of the IRA ceasefire, to allow Sinn Fein to participate in elections to a Northern talks forum.
But others were concerned that much of the rank and file membership is having difficulty with the concept of Sinn Fein existing in the absence of an IRA campaign.
One Belfast republican pointed out that while few mature members of the republican movement were enthusiastic about a return to armed struggle, younger members were enthused by the return to bombing.
After the London bombings, he said, they were shouting "victory, victory" in west Belfast drinking clubs.