Fertile imaginations sow seeds of doubt and hope

The art of the spin-doctor was being widely practised at Stormont and Hillsborough yesterday

The art of the spin-doctor was being widely practised at Stormont and Hillsborough yesterday. Since no licence is required, anyone can play the game. Everyone from rank amateurs to consummate professionals was doing it and, more and more, reporters felt they were walking through a minefield.

Past experience had shown them that the closer you get to the high point of a crisis, the more you need to beware of the "poison spin" whereby the journalist is used as the vehicle to disorientate and demoralise the opponents of those who are doing the spinning.

If it all sounds a little Byzantine, that is because politics nowadays is like that, and when you get two governments, four major parties and numerous smaller ones, not to mention the paramilitaries waiting in the wings, the scheming and manoeuvring get worse.

Nevertheless, it was possible to detect some underlying trends. There was a continuing note of restrained optimism from most quarters, except the unionists, that a deal could be done but, as one observer put it, "It's a question of when, not if".

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Don't worry about the time, another insider said airily. You can't rush your fences on this, but the elements of a settlement are beginning to emerge. "It will all collapse into place eventually," as a veteran of the process put it. The one source of worry was that there were too many ideas and solutions floating around. The whole thing could fall between two blueprints, as it were. At the end, it all resolved itself into the old tried and tested issue of decommissioning. Would they or wouldn't they? "To D or not to D."

There seemed to be widespread acceptance that the IRA would not decommission in advance of Sinn Fein's entry to government. If the UUP wanted prior disarmament, then everyone might as well go home. But they didn't: they kept on talking.

Then two main scenarios were being put forward. First, the IRA issues a statement of peaceful intent which is open to the interpretation that the "war" is over. Decommissioning will take place as part of the peace process but no hard and fast commitment will be given. The UUP buys this on the basis that if the will to war is gone, that is worth far more than a parcel of rusty revolvers.

But unless the UUP indicates its acceptance in advance, the IRA confines itself to the usual Easter generalities. The key question is: will the UUP settle for words instead of deeds? Every public indication was that they would not.

The other scenario involves a declaration of intent by the IRA to decommission "on a voluntary basis" within weeks of Sinn Fein's entry to an executive. The SDLP and the other parties, along with the two governments, guarantee Sinn Fein's expulsion from office if there is not a "big bang in the woods" with Gen de Chastelain looking on. This is all part of a package which involves British government moves on demilitarisation, progress on Drumcree and significant gestures to the victims of the Troubles.

But would the dissidents inside and outside the IRA be able to claim the decommissioning gesture was voluntary only in name? The story was immediately rubbished by both republicans and unionists.

The fact that contacts between the UUP and Sinn Fein were being played down was seen as a hopeful sign. Slightly different signals were coming from the Reg Empey and John Taylor camps, but Mr Trimble was keeping his counsel. So would we see white smoke? "Don't get too excited," one of the more reliable spinmeisters cautioned. There was still a long way to go: don't rule out a resumption of negotiations later in the week.

There was a sense that expectations were being deliberately lowered. When the time was right, the deal would be done, but any advance celebrations could sink the whole thing.

There was also a strong sense that Mr Blair was the key player who could persuade Mr Trimble to take the required "leap of faith".

The moderate face of Sinn Fein, Mitchel McLaughlin, expressed pleasure at the fact that decommissioning was now generally being spoken of as an issue to be resolved by voluntary action. He said this was "a much more pragmatic and sensible approach".

No sooner had you heard this kind of moderate-sounding language than a voice whispered in your ear: they will never do it, not until hell freezes over. The IRA has come too far to stop now. The word from the Blair camp in mid-evening was that a deal was "difficult but do-able" but there were a limited number of ways to address decommissioning. A meeting between the two prime ministers and Sinn Fein lasted longer than expected, and as the evening wore on there was speculation about a four-hander involving Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern, David Trimble and Gerry Adams.

The choreography seemed to be coming into place. The question was: did everybody want to dance?