UN:A GLOBAL fertiliser crisis caused by high oil prices and the US rush to biofuel crops is reducing the harvests of the world's poorest farmers and could lead to millions more people going hungry, according to the UN and global food analysts, writes John Vidal.
Optimism that soaring food prices could lift millions of farmers out of poverty and lead to more food being grown have been dashed, says the UN.
A UN world fertiliser forecast states that prices will remain high for at least three years. Prices have mostly doubled and in some cases risen by 500 per cent in 15 months as US farmers have rushed to plant more biofuel crops, and countries such as India and China have increased fertiliser stocks to guarantee food supply.
While the price explosion has barely affected commercial farmers, it is leading to civil unrest among small farmers in developing countries.
There have been fertiliser riots or demonstrations in Vietnam, India, Kenya, Nepal, Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan and Taiwan in the past few months.
Dr Jan Poulisse, senior UN Food and Agriculture Organisation analyst, warned that the poor were at risk.
"High commodity prices allow farmers in developed countries to cope with high fertiliser prices. But rising food prices hurt subsistence farmers," he said. "People just cannot afford [fertiliser]."
Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa have been hardest hit because they have the least chance to benefit from soaring food prices, but desperately need fertilisers to replenish nutrient-depleted soils.
Fertiliser prices have risen more than any other commodities in the past 18 months. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) sold for $250 a tonne in January 2007 but has risen to $1,230; potash-based fertilisers have risen from $172 to more than $500 a tonne; and nitrogen-based fertilisers have risen from $277 to more than $450 a tonne.
Much of the price rise is attributed to farmers in the developed world who have used large amounts of fertilisers to maximise grain harvests and take advantage of record prices, said Dr Balu Bumb, policy leader at the International Centre for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development.
The UN fertiliser forecast blames capacity constraints for the price rises.
"Strong global demand for fertilisers is stretching current production capacity. This situation will persist until new capacity comes on line," it states.
It can take seven years to open a phosphate mine, 10 years for a potash mine and three years to build a major nitrogen plant. At least 50 new nitrogen fertiliser plants are believed to be under construction. - (Guardian service)