MacGill school:Fianna Fáil won a significantly smaller percentage of general election transfers than Fine Gael, while few Green Party supporters transferred to Fianna Fáil, according to an election analysis.
Fine Gael director of elections, Frank Flannery, said Fianna Fáil received 26 per cent of all votes distributed, far below its share of the first preference vote.
"Fine Gael was the primary beneficiary, receiving 31 per cent of all votes distributed," Mr Flannery told the Patrick MacGill Summer School in Glenties, Co Donegal.
"In light of the subsequent Government formation, it is ironic to see that less than 9 per cent of Green transfers went to Fianna Fáil," he said, adding that almost two-thirds of all transfers went to Fine Gael, Labour or the Greens.
He rejected arguments that Fine Gael and Labour had erred by focusing on the state of public services, rather than the economy: "The Opposition could not have won on the economy.
"The economy was still the Government's strongest card. That is why every day they tried to shift the debate to the economy, in the same way that we tried to focus attention on health."
The pattern of Sinn Féin transfers was an "interesting phenomenon" of the general election, since, in the past, the party's supporters tended to be reluctant to give preferences to any other party.
This time, 18 per cent were non-transferable, compared to a national average of 10.6 per cent, while 24 per cent of them gave a preference to Fianna Fáil candidates.
"Fine Gael and Labour were not far behind, receiving 22 per cent and 21 per cent - which indicates a significant change in the voting patterns of Sinn Féin supporters," said Mr Flannery.
"Traditionally, we would have received hardly any transfers from Sinn Féin, and the change secured one Fine Gael seat where Terence Flanagan in Dublin North East received 1,000 transfers from Larry O'Toole of Sinn Féin," he said.
The country's higher population, improvements in the voting register and a vigorous campaign led just over two million people to vote, up by 11 per cent on the 1.8 million who voted in 2002.
Fianna Fáil's actual vote increased by 11 per cent, he said, while Fine Gael's vote tally came to 564,000 - up by over a third on the figure it received in 2002.
Labour's actual vote tally increased by 4.5 per cent, while Sinn Féin's vote rose by 18 per cent - though this was on the back of running a significantly higher number of candidates.
"The Green Party increased their votes by 35 per cent. The real losers were the Progressive Democrats. Their votes fell by almost a quarter, 23 per cent, despite the higher population," he commented.
Examining the figures more closely, Mr Flannery said one in 10 of Fianna Fáil voters had voted for others parties in 2002, while one in six had not voted in 2002, or else were voting for the first time.
"These figures suggest that Fianna Fáil retains a very solid core vote, which, undoubtedly, the Fianna Fáil machine managed to get out on this occasion," said the Fine Gael director of elections.
One in four Fine Gael voters had voted for other parties in 2002, while one in six, or so, were first-time voters, or else had not voted in 2002.
"With a growing population, and evidence of the growing volatility in the electorate, Fine Gael's success in attracting these votes is quite encouraging for the future," he claimed.
Equally, Fine Gael enjoyed a more even spread among the age groups, taking 23 per cent of the votes of 25-34 year olds, and 31 per cent of those over 65, said Mr Flannery.
Fianna Fáil's vote is more heavily dependent on the older age group: with the party securing 49 per cent of the votes of those aged over 65, and 35 per cent of those aged between 18 and 24 years.
