After securing 47 per cent of the vote in the general election in Longford-Roscommon, Fianna Fail could realistically expect to win a by-election there, but, with just under 26 per cent of popular support in Dun Laoghaire, the party would risk defeat.
The prospect of a reduction in the numbers supporting his minority government had led the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, to rule out the Minister for Defence, Mr Andrews, for the presidential election on October 30th, but he need have fewer worries ail loss if his predecessor, Mr Albert Reynolds, succeeded Mrs Mary Robinson.
While Fine Gael picked up the seat formerly held by the Independent TD Mr Tom Foxe, in Longford-Roscommon, Mr Reynolds topped the poll and, should his son Philip contest a by-election, he would be expected to hold the seat. ail in the State. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael hold two Dail seats each in the constituency.
The situation is much more volatile in Dun Laoghaire. Though Fianna Fail managed, with a tight internal transfer arrangement, to secure two seats - Mr Andrews and Ms Mary Hanafin - the party would have extreme difficulty in ensuring victory in a byelection if the Minister departed for Aras an Uachtarain.
Should Mr Andrews vacate Dun Laoghaire by securing the Presidency, it is understood his son, Barry, would probably be invited to contest the subsequent by-election. However, even if Fianna Fail was supported by the Progressive Democrats, the party would find it hard to hold the seat.
The combined ail/Progressive Democrats FF/PD vote in the June election in Dun Laoghaire came to just less than 35 per cent and it took a major campaign, with the constituency divided between Mr Andrews and Ms Hanafin, to pull in two seats.
The following is a breakdown of the first-preference votes secured by each party in the 1997 general election in Dun Laoghaire and Longford-Roscommon:
Dun Laoghaire: Fianna Fail, 25.83 per cent; Fine Gael, 30.96 per cent; Labour, 8.66 per cent; PDs, 8.55 per cent; Democratic Left, 13.89 per cent Green Party, 5.09 per cent; Others, 7.03 per cent.
Longford-Roscommon: Fianna Fail, 47.02 per cent; Fine Gael, 36.91 per cent; Labour, 1.48 per cent; PDs, 4.84 per cent; Others, 9.75 per cent.