It was the kind of a good news announcement that a Government could only dream about in the run-up to a by-election. Last week, the Tanaiste and PD leader, Ms Harney, travelled to Limerick to officially confirm the provision of 2,600 new jobs from Dell, the computer manufacturers, the biggest job announcement in the county.
The degree to which it will benefit the Government candidates, and take from the strong challenge for the seat from Fine Gael, is imponderable. No date has been fixed for the by-election, which was caused by the death of the Labour TD, Jim Kemmy, but voters are likely to be reminded of the job announcement at regular intervals between now and polling day by Fianna Fail's Ms Sandra Marsh and the PDs' Mr Tim O'Malley, as they pursue individual campaigns.
The Government might be working well nationally, but in the home base of Mr Des O'Malley, who broke with Fianna Fail to launch the PDs in 1985, his cousin, the by-election candidate, is going it alone. Mr Tim O'Malley, a pharmacist and member of Limerick County Council, said: "There will be no vote-transfer arrangement with any party, as far as we are concerned. The PDs are doing a good job in Government - Mary Harney's investigation of the Ansbacher accounts is an example - and we believe that voters will want to see the party strengthened in the Dail."
It is bad news for Fianna Fail, already plagued by internal local tensions, given that Mr O'Malley, according to private opinion polls, is at between 17 and 20 per cent, and his transfers could be crucial for Ms Marsh. In last year's general election, the PD first preference vote totalled 12.42 per cent, with Mr Des O'Malley experiencing a sharp decline in his vote.
That election saw a Fianna Fail gain at the expense of the PDs, when Mr Eddie Wade took the seat vacated by Mr Peadar Clohessy, who had retired. He did so with the help of transfers from the outgoing Fianna Fail TD, Mr Willie O'Dea, now Minister of State for Education, Science and Technology, who polled a massive 12,581 first preference votes and was elected with Fine Gael's Mr Michael Noonan on the first count.
On paper, the obvious Fianna Fail byelection candidate was Mr Peter Power, a solicitor, who secured 2,362 first preference votes in the general election and also provided Mr Wade with a hefty transfer to secure his election. But Mr Power failed to come through the convention. Ms Marsh, who had never previously contested an election, was nominated apparently with the help of Mr O'Dea, who has a powerful grip on the local organisation.
Mr Power was reported to be very displeased, as was the constituency chairman, Mr Noel Gleeson, who was also spoken of as a possible candidate. Meanwhile, to add to the party's troubles, Mr Tom Ryan, a former county hurling manager and party activist, is considering running as an Independent. Mr O'Dea's huge vote is due to his voracious appetite for constituency work. But can he deliver enough of the vote to Ms Marsh, in the face of party disunity and her lack of a political profile? Ms Marsh, a duty passenger officer in Shannon Airport and public relations officer for the Limerick GAA board, only recently joined Fianna Fail, although she says she was a strong party supporter and canvassed in the last election.
One Fianna Fail poll has Ms Marsh heading the poll, with 27 per cent of the vote, but losing out to Fine Gael's Senator Mary Jackman, with 20 per cent, on transfers. Mr Tim O'Malley is running third at 17 per cent, Labour's Ms Jan O'Sullivan has 16 per cent and Democratic Left's Mr John Ryan, 10 per cent. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has played down the poll result, describing it as one of a number of straw polls which the party did not take too seriously. On the party tensions, he told The Irish Times: "We will always have friction because we are the only party with a truly national organisation. We always have people aspiring to be in the Dail, who have their supporters, and when they are not the candidate they feel sore about it. I would prefer that to what happens in parties where a handful of people get together hoping to find anybody to run."
Fine Gael, on a high since the party broke Fianna Fail's seemingly invincible stranglehold on Limerick West by taking two of the three seats, is confident it can defy the odds in Limerick East. Ms Jackman said: "Michael Noonan was the first Minister for Health to provide substantial funding for the Regional Hospital, and the public will not forget Fine Gael for that."
For Labour, Ms O'Sullivan, a former senator who polled 1,866 first preference votes in the general election, will be hoping to gain from the considerable affection many Limerick people had for Mr Kemmy. She is receiving the full backing of his organisation, and his brother, Mr Joe Kemmy, is her director of elections. There will be considerable interest in the performance of Mr Ryan, seen by Democratic Left as a future TD. A lecturer in Limerick RTC, he polled more than 3,400 first preference votes in the general election.
Mr Eric Sheppard is running for the Green Party, Ms Jenny Shapland for Sinn Fein, and Mr John Gilligan - a member of Limerick City Council who is active on local issues - is running as an Independent.