FIANNA FAIL and the Progressive Democrats are close to securing a Dail majority, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll published today. They hold a lead of 10 percentage points over the Rainbow parties.
A gap of six points remains between the Rainbow Government and the Fianna Fail/PD alternative as the preferred choice of coalition. With only six days to go to polling, however, it is running dangerously late for the three Rainbow parties to stage a come-back in the campaign.
The minimal shift in public opinion in the second week of the election campaign is the main finding of today's poll. The high level of undecided voters has changed only marginally, down from 16 per cent to 14 per cent, since the last poll was conducted on May 20th.
Excluding them, the state of the parties is: Fianna Fail 42 per cent, down 1 point; Fine Gael 26 per cent, unchanged; Labour 11 per cent, up 1 point; PDs 7 per cent, unchanged; Democratic Left 2 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 4 per cent, up 1 point; and Others 8 per cent, down 1 point. Others include Sinn Fein 1 per cent, down 1 point, and Workers' Party 1 per cent, up 1 point.
The lack of what could be described as a "spring tide" for any coalition combination or party will cause some surprise to election strategists as they prepare to maximise their strengths on the last lap of the campaign. The only measurable shift in opinion over eight days occurred in Dublin: Fianna Fail 34 per cent, down 5 points; Fine Gael 22 per cent, down 1 point; Labour 10 per cent, down 1 point; PDs 12 per cent, up 3 points; DL 2 per cent, down 3 points; and Green Party 9 per cent, up 4 points.
The poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at loo sampling points throughout all constituencies last Wednesday. May 28th. The impact of the unmarried mothers controversy generated by the PD leader, Ms Mary Harney, and the consequent meeting between Mr Bertie Ahern and Ms Harney last Sunday to co-ordinate their bid for office were the main events of the week.
The poll was conducted before the Rainbow leaders, realising they were trailing, began to mount their offensive two days ago.
The Fianna Fail/PD alliance is the preferred choice of coalition for 44 per cent of voters. The current Government is the choice of 38 per cent. Some 11 per cent of respondents, up 3 points, would prefer neither. The level of undecideds is 8 per cent, down 2 points.
While the Rainbow parties are still failing to increase their combined first-preference vote, the level of satisfaction with the Government has again risen by 3 points in eight days to an unprecedented 57 per cent. Mr Bruton's rating is 58 per cent, up 3 points; Mr Spring's is 49 per cent, up 2 points; and Mr De Rossa's is 47 per cent, up 3 points.
The leader of Fianna Fail, Mr Ahern, has increased his satisfaction rating to 65 per cent, up 5 points. The PD leader, Ms Harney, has a 57 per cent rating, down 7 points.
With a hung Dail in prospect, respondents were asked which coalitions would be acceptable to them if the Rainbow and the Fianna Fail/PD combinations failed to secure an overall majority. A coalition which included the Green Party would be acceptable to a majority of 62 per cent of voters, 26 per cent would find it unacceptable and 13 per cent had no opinion. A majority of supporters of all the main parties would accept the inclusion of the Greens.
A coalition which included Sinn Fein would be acceptable to 31 per cent of voters. It would be unacceptable to 59 per cent. Some 11 per cent expressed no opinion. A majority of Fianna Fail supporters, 57 per cent, would find Sinn Fein in a coalition unacceptable; 34 per cent would find it acceptable.
A Fianna Fail/Labour coalition would be acceptable to 37 per cent of voters, including 41 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters and 60 per cent of Labour supporters. Some 52 per cent overall would find this combination unacceptable, among them 52 per cent of Fianna Fail voters. Some 11 per cent have no opinion.
