CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Mayo: The shape of the next government could be decided in Mayo, writes Denis Coghlan
When Bertie Ahern waltzed down the streets of Castlebar with Beverley Cooper-Flynn and her grinning father, caution had gone out the window. This was real politics, not ethics.
Gone was the concern which had underpinned a Dáil vote of censure in Padraig Flynn for failing to explain the £50,000 from builder Tom Gilmartin, and the ideals which had led to the expulsion of Beverley from the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party were missing. All was forgotten in the drive to retain a Fianna Fáil seat.
However, the people of Castlebar might not be so forgiving. Recent opinion polls have shown the Flynn vote to have imploded in the county town and her seat is in jeopardy. The last time this happened, triggered by a mixture of arrogance and insolence, Michael Ring came from the shadows to win a by-election for Fine Gael.
This time, the red-hot challenger is an Independent.
Dr Jerry Cowley of Mulranny is contesting on a broad ticket of health, water services and community development. Election posters represent the local GP as something of a cool, clean hero.
He has linked with Independent Marian Harkin of Sligo- Leitrim in a latter-day Save the West campaign.
The five-seat constituency is already something of a political aberration in that it returns a majority of Fine Gael TDs and the signs are positive for the party this time.
The greatest threat to its three seats comes from the success of its poll-topper, Michael Ring. His vote-hoovering ability may depress the first-preference votes of both Jim Higgins and Enda Kenny and leave them vulnerable to the attentions of Beverley Cooper-Flynn and newcomer John Carty of Fianna Fáil.
The cluster of candidates in the Castlebar-Westport-Newport-Mulranny part of the constituency makes this the election cockpit and voting transfers will decide the destination of the final seat.
All observers expect Mr Ring to have a surplus on the first count. After that, Senator Frank Chambers of Fianna Fáil, Beverley-Cooper Flynn, Enda Kenny and Jerry Cowley will all be seeking transfers from those lower down the field to avoid elimination.
The cannon-fodder this time is likely to be made up of Sinn Féin's Vincent Wood, the Progressive Democrats' Billy Heffron, the Green Party's Ann Crowley and Independents Michael Holmes and Thomas King.
In the eastern-northern part of the constituency, Jim Higgins of Fine Gael looks set to hold his seat, with Mr Carty threatening the positions of both Minister of State, Dr Tom Moffatt, and Ms Cooper-Flynn.
The behaviour of the Taoiseach in embracing Ms Cooper-Flynn and blowing cool on Mr Chambers suggests she is Fianna Fáil's best chance. Three months ago, Fianna Fáil dreamed of three seats, now it is fighting to hold two. Enda Kenny (FG) is also under pressure. The joker in the pack is Dr Cowley.
A major upset is on the cards.
Prediction: Fianna Fáil 1, Fine Gael 3, Independent 1. FF loss to Independent.