Many observers believe that Michael Finucane of Fine Gael is vulnerable, writes Éibhir Mulqueen
One of the few constituencies where Fine Gael dominates, Limerick West, is a key one for Fianna Fáil in the search for new seats.
The surprising result in the three-seater in the last election was precipitated by the retirement of both Gerry Collins and Michael J. Noonan of Fianna Fáil. Divisions in the party resulted in Mr Dan Neville and Mr Michael Finucane being elected for Fine Gael.
Mr Michael Collins comfortably held the Fianna Fáil seat vacated by his brother, Gerry, now an MEP and FF director of elections in the constituency.
For a time in the 1950s, the three seats were all held by Fianna Fáil and now Senator John Cregan is running with Mr Collins to turn the tide in an area, which is both the childhood home of the party founder, Éamon de Valera, and the birthplace of the Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan.
Many observers believe Mr Finucane's seat is the vulnerable one despite 12 years' experience and a profile as a former minister and the current chairman of the Public Accounts Committee.
His natural constituency is in the west of the county, a strong Fianna Fáil area dominated by the Collins family. Mr Jimmy Collins, the father of Gerry and Michael, held a seat from 1948 to 1967, before Gerry inherited it.
Mr Finucane's proportion of the vote has hovered at 16 per cent in the last two elections, a far cry from 1989 when he had 27 per cent of the vote as the single Fine Gael TD.
In 1997, he was eclipsed by his colleague and Dáil newcomer, Mr Neville, who, similarly to Mr Collins, made the quota with 21 per cent of the vote.
Canvassing by all four candidates has been building up since January. In March, Mr Finucane hinted that alarm bells were ringing, stating in an election leaflet that he needed "a significant increase in my first-preference vote in order that we retain two seats in West Limerick".
Fianna Fáil, on the other hand, has avoided the mistake of 1997 when the camp was split by county councillors Mr Michael Brennan and Mr John Gallahue running as Independent candidates, spoiling the chances of the official candidate, Cllr John Clifford keeping the second seat.
This time around, efforts are focussed on Mr Cregan, also a county councillor, who was elected to the Seanad in 1998, and has been building up his base over the past four years.
From Dromcollogher on the Limerick/Cork border, he was first elected to the council in 1991 at the age of 30.
Running as an Independent candidate is Mr Micheál MacDomhnaill, a schoolteacher from Newcastle West.
Prediction. FF 2, FG 1.
FF gain from FG.
1997: FF 32.44%; FG 37.19%; Lab 4.22%; PDs 4.18%; Others 21.96%
Outgoing TDs: Michael Collins (FF); Michael Finucane and Dan Neville (FG).