Support for Fianna Fáil has increased over the past two weeks but the Fine Gael-Labour alliance is still ahead of the outgoing Government in the election race, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll. Stephen Collins, Political Editor, reports.
The poll shows that support for Fianna Fáil has risen by 2 percentage points while support for Fine Gael is down 3 points. However, Labour is up 3 points and the Progressive Democrats are down 1 point to give the alternative alliance a lead of 3 points with two weeks of the campaign to go.
The adjusted figures for party support are: Fianna Fáil 36 per cent (up 2 points); Fine Gael 28 per cent (down 3 points); Labour 13 per cent (up 3 points); Sinn Féin 10 per cent (no change); Greens 5 per cent (down 1 point); PDs 2 per cent (down 1 point); and Independents/ others 6 per cent (no change).
When asked if the Taoiseach had further questions to answer about his personal finances 72 per cent of respondents said that he had. Asked if it was a serious issue in the general election campaign, 50 per cent said it was and 43 per cent said that it was not.
A total of 59 per cent said he should make a public statement about his finances during the campaign while 32 per cent said he should wait until the Mahon tribunal after the election.
The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points around the country, just over a week into the election campaign and the controversy over Mr Ahern's finances.
The core vote for the parties is: Fianna Fáil 35 per cent (up 3 points); Fine Gael 22 per cent (down 1 point); Labour 10 per cent (up 3 points); Sinn Féin 8 per cent (no change); Greens 4 per cent (no change); PDs 1 per cent (down one point); Independents/others 5 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 15 per cent (down 4 points).
When voters were asked which of the alternative coalitions on offer they would like to see forming the next government, the Fine Gael-Labour alliance, with the possible support of the Greens, had a two-point lead with 38 per cent as against 36 per cent for the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition. There was only a 1 per cent change on this issue since the last poll but there was a significant change in the number of people who actually believe the alternative alliance will win.
Asked which of the coalitions they thought would actually form the next government 35 per cent opted for the Fine Gael-Labour alliance while 34 per cent said Fianna Fáil and the PDs.
This is the first time more people expected the Opposition to form the next government. Only two weeks ago 41 per cent expected Fianna Fáil and the PDs to win while 23 per cent thought Fine Gael and Labour would take power.
The survey, which coincided with the re-establishment of a powersharing Executive in the North, showed a 1 point increase in the Taoiseach's satisfaction rating to 54 per cent, making him the most popular party leader. Satisfaction with the Government was up 4 points to 47 per cent. The most dramatic change in satisfaction ratings was that for Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, who was up 6 points to 47 per cent.
It was the highest rating achieved by Mr Kenny since he took over as leader of Fine Gael five years ago.
Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte's satisfaction rating was up 2 points to 50 per cent while Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams was up 5 points to 51 per cent.
There will be some relief in Fianna Fáil at the two-point increase in party support since the last poll, given the poor start to the election campaign and the controversy over the Taoiseach's finances. But there will be disappointment that a "Bertie bounce" on the scale of that which happened last October has not materialised again.
Fine Gael will be disappointed to see support slipping by 3 points since the last poll but party strategists are confident that 28 per cent on election day will deliver more than 50 Dáil seats.
The three-point jump for Labour is probably more important for the prospects of the alternative government. At 13 per cent Labour should hold its existing seats and have a chance of some potential gains. Critically for Labour the party has pushed back ahead of Sinn Féin and is well ahead of the Greens in Dublin. Sinn Féin will be happy that it is holding the 10 per cent it achieved in the last poll but the Greens will be disappointed at the one-point drop to 5 per cent following its two-point drop in the previous poll.
On 2 per cent nationally, the PDs slipped into dangerous territory and the party does not have a single safe seat. Michael McDowell's satisfaction rating has improved a little but the poll shows the party has a battle for survival on its hands.