Bertie Ahern was in a commanding position last night to form his third successive government after an impressive performance by Fianna Fáil that saw the party come close to holding the same number of seats it won in the last election, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
Mr Ahern said last night it was a great night for Fianna Fáil and a great night for the party machine, particularly after the way it had been written off when the campaign started. He said there was a lot of work to be done in the days ahead to form a government but he intended to wait until all the seats were filled and the position was clear. Mr Ahern said he expected Fianna Fáil to come in at about 79 seats. He said he would serve as Taoiseach until May or June of 2012, when he will be 60.
There was immediate speculation across the political divide about how a new government will be formed in light of the fact the Progressive Democrats have been reduced to just two seats, with the Tánaiste and party leader Michael McDowell being ousted from the Dáil.
Fianna Fáil may need another coalition partner to form a stable government. The focus last night was on the Green Party as a potential new coalition option if Fianna Fáil and the PDs do not have the 83 seats when the count is completed. Asked if he would support a Fianna Fáil-led government Independent TD Tony Gregory said if he was " in a position of influence" he had many social issues that needed to be addressed and he would listen to anyone who talked to him.
Senior Fianna Fáil Minister Dermot Ahern said the party would not make a decision on the formation of a government until the final seats were in, but added that any government would have to be "a stable relationship".
He added: "We'll do what is in the best interests of our people."
Green Party leader Trevor Sargent said his party would be willing to speak to Fianna Fáil but he insisted that any talks would be driven by a policy agenda. "We're open to talk to everybody. But anyone who wants to talk to us, I'd advise them to read our manifesto and policies first," he said.
He said any possible government involving his party "will have to be a Green one", adding that policies tackling issues such as global warming and public services would be priorities.
Mr Sargent has previously said, however, that he would not lead the Green Party into coalition with Fianna Fáil. He indicated last night that this position had not changed.
The handful of Independents who survived the election may play a vital role in the formation of the new government, and may be an option for Fianna Fáil if a deal with the Greens proves impossible.
The strongest surviving Independent, Michael Lowry, expressed his preference for Enda Kenny as taoiseach, but said that if that was not possible he would be willing to consider supporting a government led by Mr Ahern. "I am now available to have discussions in the interests of the people that I serve here in Tipperary in relation to the formation of the next government," he said.
Fine Gael had an impressive election performance and last night a party spokesman said the party expected to end up with 52 seats in the new Dáil, a gain of 21 on the last election result.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kennysaid the party's gains showed there was "a mood in the country for change".
"It is a spectacular performance in a general election. I'm very happy with the outcome from around the country," he said. Mr Kenny added that the gains should be seen in the light of "a Government that has been in power for 10 years, with all of the economic capital they had to dispose".
Labour had a disappointing election but is expected to end up with 19 or 20 seats. The party leader, Pat Rabbitte, conceded that Mr Ahern would be re-elected taoiseach when the Dáil resumes. Mr Rabbitte said the people had spoken. Later he acknowledged that a stable government was needed, stating the economy was "facing choppy waters". But he rejected suggestions this meant he would have to lead Labour into coalition with Fianna Fáil.
"The hand of history falls on more shoulders than mine," Mr Rabbitte said. The turnout was up by almost 5 per cent, at 67.3 per cent, compared to 62.6 per cent in 2002.
Overall, Fianna Fáil polled just under 41.6 per cent of the first-preference vote, almost exactly the same as 2002. Fine Gael polled 27.3 per cent, an increase of 5 per cent; Labour took 10.1 per cent, a drop of half a percent; the PDs took just 2.7 per cent, a drop of 1.2 per cent; the Greens polled 4.7 per cent, an increase of 1 per cent; Sinn Féin got 6.9 per cent, a marginal increase; and others got 6.6 per cent, a drop of 5 per cent.