Participants on all sides of the campaign are slow to speculate, just yet, on the impact of a defeat for the Government's proposal. Mark Hennessy reports
Oscar Wilde has occasionally come to mind regarding the Government and its abortion referendum campaign. To lose one referendum may be forgivable. To lose two will smack of carelessness.
So far, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern is determined that Fianna Fáil will put its shoulder to the wheel, even if the Progressive Democrats will be rarely found alongside between now and March 6th.
Fianna Fáil is spending €160,000 on an extensive campaign where 700,000 leaflets will be distributed and posters erected on the country's main roads. A billboard campaign is also planned.
The party's constituency organisations have nearly all completed planning meetings. "It isn't like Nice. People are more engaged. They do have views on this one. And people are conscious of having to make up for that. People are conscious that it is politically very important. They are going to work," said a leading party figure.
Party organisers regard the referendum as an ideal opportunity to test the local machinery in advance of the general election to come, even if they are reluctant to admit that. So far, they insist that people want guidance, not extra information. "People know where they stand on this. The Referendum Commission will get all the information out there that people want, or need," said one source.
Fresh from a successful ardfheis, Fine Gael is more unified than many would have believed possible given the dithering while the legislation was going through the Oireachtas.
Former deputy leader Mrs Nora Owen, who heads the €100,000 campaign, is scathing about the Taoiseach's refusal to debate the issue with Fine Gael leader Mr Noonan.
"This is a political issue, whether you like it or not. It is politics with a small 'p'. It was a Government made up of politicians that brought it in. Does the Taoiseach not feel adequate enough to debate the issue in public?"
Many delegates at the ardfheis took home 4x3 "aide memoires" to help them debate the issue with friends and colleagues, even if the party will not be organising a full-scale door-to-door canvass. "It isn't something for a canvass. It is a very complex matter. A lot of branch members would not necessarily feel well informed enough to deal with this on the doorstep," said Mrs Owen.
The Labour Party intends to erect 3,000 posters calling for a No vote, backed up by action on the floor of the Dáil and a billboard campaign in the final fortnight, at a cost of €75,000.
The party's health spokesperson, Ms Liz McManus, still smarting from Fianna Fáil's verbal assault on her in the Dáil chamber last week, will lead the party's team on the airwaves. Deputy leader Mr Brendan Howlin, Mr Derek McDowell, Limerick TD Ms Jan O'Sullivan and the party's Dublin MEP Mr Proinsias De Rossa will also be made available.
The campaign will offer an opportunity to create some profile for barrister Mr Peter Ward, who faces a tough battle as the party's candidate in Meath.
"We need to try and persuade people that the sensible, middle-ground, compassionate position is to say No. We are going for everybody," said a key party strategist.
The campaign philosophy is frank: "We need to put people back to 1992. We need them to remember how they felt when they first heard the story of the X case. If we do that then we will win," he told The Irish Times.
The loss of €75,000 from the general election budget can be tolerated: "We took a strategic decision that the issue was important enough to warrant investment. We have been very strong on this for the past 10 years," he said.
Despite Fianna Fáil's charge that Labour is "pro-abortion", the party leadership insists the Cork conference vote last year does not mean Labour favours a liberal abortion regime. "People were saying that they were dissatisfied with the current regime. We have some more to do before we come to a definitive position. That would involve another conference," he said.
For now, participants on all sides are slow publicly to speculate about the impact of a defeat for the Government's proposal, although the silence will not last long on polling day if a No vote wins.
Mrs Owen said: "I would not like this to be seen as an election issue. But, of necessity, any time we speak on any issue people will make judgments on how we compare with the Government people.
"If this goes wrong for the Government, they will be damaged because they were given enough warnings about this," said Mrs Owen, whose conduct during media interviews so far has left Fianna Fáil figures seething privately.
So far, Fianna Fáil remains publicly confident the campaign can be won; although the first signs of worry have begun to emerge, most notably last week when the Taoiseach was visibly angry in the Dáil.
The referendum takes place on March 6th, just before the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis on March 7/8th. Originally, the date was picked to launch the party's general election campaign in style.
Predicting the atmosphere of the ardfheis is now more difficult. A victory will be greeted with great relief. A defeat will raise charges of incompetence. "It won't be a wake one way or the other," said one party member determinedly.