CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: Cork South West is expected to return the same three TDs in a straight FF-FG battle, Alison O'Connor reports
There are few certainties in a general election, but the constituency of Cork South West is generally considered one of them.
It is widely believed that the likelihood of any of the three sitting TDs being ousted is remote. But in recent weeks there has been a quiet confidence growing in the Fianna Fáil camp surrounding their second candidate, Senator Denis O'Donovan.
It would be a major shock if Fine Gael were to lose one of their two seats; if they do it would surely reflect a national trend against the party.
The sitting TDs are the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Joe Walsh (FF); Fine Gael's Mr P.J. Sheehan; and his party colleague Mr Jim O'Keeffe. If there is to be a change, the Bandon-based Mr O'Keeffe is seen as vulnerable.
Mr Walsh, who was first elected in 1977, but had his Dáil career briefly interrupted in 1981, is expected to top the poll. Not traditionally generous to running mates, it is thought his enhanced profile as a minister and his excellent handling of last year's foot-and-mouth crisis will increase his vote and benefit the Bantry-based Mr O'Donovan.
It remains to be seen, though, how the party's vote-management strategy will be implemented on the ground.
Walsh supporters say that in the 1997 election Mr Walsh won the third seat without reaching the quota. This is Mr O'Donovan's fifth general election.
Geographically, Cork South West is the largest constituency in the country, incorporating three peninsulas and seven islands.
This time around Mr Walsh is expected to be the first candidate elected; followed by Mr Sheehan, who became a TD in 1981, with his party colleague Mr O'Keeffe, who first was elected in 1977, taking the third seat.
The three sitting TDs are perfectly placed geographically - Mr Sheehan in the west, Mr Walsh in the centre, and Mr O'Keeffe in the east - and they are on friendly terms.
Labour says it believes its candidate, 25-year-old Mr Michael McCarthy from Dunmanway, could cause a surprise in this constituency. Mr Murphy, a member of Cork County Council, says that his slogan "A Time for Change" is striking a chord with the electorate in West Cork. However, it is expected that while he may come through in future elections he will not win a seat this time around.
Labour held a seat here from the foundation of the State until 1981, when Michael Pat Murphy was defeated. Mr Murphy, who died in 2000, was the father-in-law of the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue.
One of the most colourful TDs in the Dáil, Mr Sheehan said recently on the Vincent Browne radio programme that the only Fianna Fáil legacy in West Cork was that they took away the railway system in the 1950s.
"They sold them to a third world country, and I'm told as late as last week that they are still working well in that third world country," said Mr Sheehan.
Cork South West was a five-seater constituency until 1948 and since then Fianna Fáil has never won a second seat. Fine Gael support is deep rooted, not forgetting the Michael Collins connection.
This is a predominantly rural and conservative constituency, although there are a number of large towns including Bandon, Skibbereen, Bantry and Kinsale.
Recent job losses have hit hard. The area, particularly around Bantry and the Beara Peninsula, does not have a large number of industrial jobs to begin with.
In February Alcatel announced that 75 jobs were to go at its Bandon plant. The closure of the Molnlycke factory in Dunmanway, with the loss of 200 jobs was also a big blow.
Agriculture dominates the local economy, while the picturesque coastline attracts a large number of tourists each summer.
Other significant employers include a number of co-ops; Eli Lilly in Kinsale; Schering Plough based at Innishannon; while the mussel farming industry is a big employer in the Bantry Bay area.
Sinn Féin have nominated two candidates on this occasion: Cllr Cionnaith Ó Suilleabháin and Cllr Anne O'Leary, a teacher from Bantry.
Prediction: 1 FF, 2 FG. No change.
1997: FF 39.05%; FG 44.18%; Lab 6.75%; GP 3.49%; NP 5.12%; Others 1.41%.
Outgoing TDs: Joe Walsh (FF); PJ Sheehan and Jim O'Keeffe (FG)