FF seems to be leaving old fiefdom to Flynn

There's been an air of suspended disbelief among various party workers on the canvass in Mayo over the past couple of weeks. Why has Fianna Fáil all but abandoned parts of the county to former party member and Independent TD Beverley Flynn?

And is the electorate really going to back as taoiseach a TD who had to wait till the ninth count to be returned in his own constituency in 2002? The prospect that Enda Kenny may become leader of a potential coalition government has ensured - if not quite guaranteed - that he should avoid a repeat of the intense battle which continued between himself and party colleague Jim Higgins, now MEP, to the ninth count last time round.

Both he and ever-popular colleague Michael Ring are expected to reach the quota, but a third seat for one of the four FG candidates is less certain.

Few experienced Mayo observers are putting money on it - even though Fianna Fáil appears to have lost interest in a former fiefdom.

In spite of much sabre-rattling over several years, Fianna Fáil's national headquarters is perceived to have failed to move decisively against supporters of Flynn.

The fact that there is still a large cost factor relating to her unsuccessful legal action against RTÉ doesn't appear to be an issue, and the Taoiseach must envy her ability to deal with questions over her finances.

Bearing no reference to either party or Independent status, Flynn's election material suggests a post-election deal with her old colleagues is in the offing.

Officially, Fianna Fáil has been pinning hopes on Chambers Ireland executive Dara Calleary, son of former TD and minister of State Seán Calleary and grandson of Phelim, who was also a TD. He has been a member of Fianna Fáil's ardchomhairle and of Ógra Fianna Fáil, and was selected, along with sitting TD John Carty, and former senator Cllr Frank Chambers, at a selection convention last year which - surprise, surprise - did not quite go party headquarters' way.

Under director of elections Denis Gallagher, son of the late and very popular Fianna Fáil minister of the same name, the county has been divided up, with Chambers focusing on the south-west, including Castlebar and Westport, Carty in the east with Claremorris and Knock and Calleary in the north. Curiously, Ballina Chamber of Commerce has become embroiled in a row over apparent backing of Calleary - a claim rejected by its president, Audrey Robinson.

The chamber did seek backing for a Ballina candidate in the local press in March, given that it had no TD since Fianna Fáil's Tom Moffatt lost his seat in 2002. The call gained momentum, to the extent that rival candidates were rumoured to be advocating transfers across party lines - once the candidate was Ballina-based and was not Independent TD Jerry Cowley.

The Ballina-born GP, now based in Mulrany, has in turn criticised the chamber for excluding him. Cowley supporters suspect that the subtext may relate to his very public stance against the Corrib gas project.

Two recent opinion polls gave mixed signals about Cowley's prospects. Fine Gael's "celebrity" candidate, football manager John O'Mahony, is said to be making a late GAA-supported push. Party discipline for the two major players will be the big issue, and the "wild card" could be the challenge posed by Sinn Féin councillor Gerry Murray from Charlestown, formerly a member of Fianna Fáil, who topped the poll in the Swinford electoral area during the 2004 local elections.

The Progressive Democrats are running Tommy Cooke, Ballina town councillor and community activist. Labour's Harry Barrett, a Castlebar-based teacher and father of two young children, has been working assiduously to build up his profile on issues ranging from health and childcare to Corrib gas.The Green Party's Peter Enright has a lot of ground to cover.

Infrastructure including roads, public transport and water services; health, including support for carers and greater opportunities on training schemes for people with disabilities. The Corrib gas issue is one which Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny and his poll-topping colleague, Michael Ring, have been at odds over, with Ring supporting offshore gas processing. It could cause problems for Fine Gael and Labour in any coalition.