CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:AS ANY schoolchild will tell you, two into one doesn't go. But try telling that to Fianna Fáil in Dublin North where the party is virtually certain to lose one of its seats on polling day.
Unusually, given the mass clear-out of figures from the 30th Dáil, all the sitting TDs in this constituency are going forward again, leaving Fianna Fáil deputies Darragh O’Brien and Michael Kennedy to slug it out for the likely reward of one seat.
O’Brien is one of Fianna Fáil’s young turks in the Dáil and enjoys the favour of its hierarchy – Micheál Martin recently made him spokesman for sport. But Kennedy is said to be the harder worker in the constituency and finished ahead of his rival in 2007.
O’Brien is based in Malahide, the more middle-class end of the constituency and a long-time Fianna Fáil bailiwick, while Kennedy is from Balbriggan but has cleverly established a strong base in Swords.
Dr James Reilly is tipped to top the poll for Fine Gael, but the real challenge for the party’s deputy leader is to bring in his running mate, Alan Farrell. Most observers think the vote management required to pull this off is beyond the party’s abilities but Farrell, a councillor in Drynam, should poll well.
Dublin North’s boundaries have changed greatly since the last election, thanks to a rejig by the Constituency Commission that meant large chunks around Portmarnock and Swords went to Dublin North East and Dublin West, respectively. That might hurt Socialist Party/United Left Alliance candidate Clare Daly most as much of her core support came from the River Valley estate near Swords, now in Dublin West.
The constituency still sprawls, although it isn’t quite as rural since large housing estates went up near the Meath border. This is negative equity heartland, but unemployment has been kept in check by some welcome job announcements.
Metro North is probably the biggest local concern. Reilly, who is keen on building the line, might be in a position in government to act on this promise, but Labour could suffer for sending mixed signals on the issue. Labour’s candidates are well spread out in the constituency. Senator Brendan Ryan is from Skerries in the north of the constituency, while Councillor Tom Kelleher is a school principal from Swords.
Labour is a shoo-in for a seat, and could sneak two. Ryan, the brother of former Labour TD Seán Ryan, has struggled to make a national impression in the Seanad but should get home. A minority view holds that he could be challenged hard by Kelleher.
And what of Trevor Sargent, who topped the poll for the Greens in 2002 and ranked third on first preferences last time around? Much will depend on the voters’ view of his responsibility for events of the past few years.
The semi-detached nature of his involvement in Government may stand to him when it comes to seeking preferences. The last seat looks like a dogfight between Sargent, Daly and one of the Fianna Fáilers. Among the Independents, Dr Marcus de Brun is standing on a health reform ticket but Councillor David O’Connor, who polled 1,500 votes in 2007, is not standing.
DUBLIN NORTH: 4 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs: Michael Kennedy (FF), Trevor Sargent (GP), Darragh O'Brien (FF), James Reilly (FG).
DECLARED TO DATE:Michael Kennedy (FF), Darragh O'Brien (FF), Trevor Sargent (GP), James Reilly (FG), Alan Farrell (FG), Brendan Ryan (Lab), Tom Kelleher (Lab), Clare Daly (Socialist Party/United Left Alliance) Marcus de Brun (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES: Transport looms large as a priority. Commuter train services have improved but there is widespread support for the building of Metro North, especially around Swords. EirGrid's plans to build an electricity interconnector at Rush have excited intense local opposition but the planning issues have largely been decided.
VERDICT: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1, GP 1
