Constituency Notebook: Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter, predicts no change with G.V. Wright, Nora Owen, Seán Ryan and Trevor Sargent retaining their seats
Fianna Fáil seems set to be frustrated in its quest to regain a second seat in the one-time stronghold of Dublin North.
The party is fielding two strong candidates and has one outgoing TD, Mr G.V. Wright, but it is facing an uphill struggle in retrieving the seat lost in one of the last Dáil's early by-elections.
The constituency was once the Burke fiefdom. Mr Ray Burke from Swords was the poll-topper and party strongman, and a keen supporter of Mr Ahern when he succeeded Albert Reynolds to the Fianna Fáil leadership.
After helping to secure two seats in the constituency through tight vote-management, Mr Burke was appointed minister for foreign affairs in the 1997 government. He resigned from the cabinet and the Dáil in October that year amid controversy about financial contributions he received during his career.
The by-election was won by Labour's Mr Seán Ryan, who had lost his seat to Mr Wright in the general election. Mr Ryan had topped the poll in 1992 with 14,693 first preferences, the second-highest in the State, but he was a casualty in 1997 as the electoral tide went out for Labour.
Mr Ryan has since rebuilt his base and will not lightly relinquish his seat to Fianna Fáil this time. Fine Gael's Ms Nora Owen and the Green Party leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, will be equally difficult to unseat.
Last time, Mr Wright received 71 per cent of Mr Burke's surplus, taking the second seat on the fifth count.
Mr Wright is joined on the ticket this time by Senator Jim Glennon and Mr Michael Kennedy. Mr Glennon, a former international rugby player, won a Seanad by-election in 2000. The party was clearly grooming him as a potential Dáil candidate.
Mr Kennedy did well in difficult circumstances in the 1998 by-election caused by Mr Burke's resignation.
However, vote-management seems unlikely in circumstances where Mr Kennedy sees himself as the heir apparent to the second seat. His advertisement in the Fingal Independent urges voters to support a candidate who has worked at local and council level rather than somebody "who appears just months before an election".
There has been speculation that Ms Owen could be vulnerable, but she is expected to hold on in a constituency where the party once had two seats.
She was the party's deputy leader under Mr John Bruton and minister for justice in the rainbow government.
Her star declined under Mr Michael Noonan for a time, but she was restored to the front bench last March, as spokeswoman on tourism and aviation, after her performance as director of the party's campaign against the abortion amendment.
Her running mate is Mr Cathal Boland, a member of Fingal County Council, and brother of the late John Boland, who was a TD for the constituency for a number of years.
Mr Sargent has increased his profile since being elected party leader and seems assured of re-election.
The performance of the Socialist Party's Ms Clare Daly will be followed with interest, given the manner in which she has been painstakingly building a base in the constituency. She polled close on 3,000 first preferences in the 1997 election.
Mr Mick Davis is the Sinn Féin candidate, while Mr Ciaran Goulding is running as an Independent.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 1; Lab 1; GP 1. No change.