The first Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, conducted after the May 2002 general election, indicated a significant slump in satisfaction for both the Government and the Fianna Fáil party.
At the time all of the indications were that significant sections of the electorate felt betrayed at what they believed had been disingenuous Government party pronouncements on the positive state of the economy throughout the election campaign.
Thus, that September 2002 opinion poll produced a Government satisfaction rating of just 36 per cent, and registered Fianna Fáil support at a low of 34 per cent.
Political pundits quickly formed the opinion that the electorate would most likely lie waiting in the long grass until the June 2004 local and European elections, at which stage the Government would be punished for its transgressions. Many such observers also believed, however, that, having slaked their thirst for revenge, voters would return to Fianna Fáil by the time the next general election came round, placated by an improving economy and the SSIA bonanza.
Part one of this popular theory certainly came to pass. Fianna Fáil garnered less than a third of all first-preference votes cast in last year's local government elections and lost scores of seats. The economy did indeed recover, and the first two opinion polls of 2005 showed a marked recovery in the fortunes of the Government, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil (Tables II and III). People naturally began to talk of the possibility of Ahern calling an early general election, perhaps next summer, to capitalise on his Government's strengthening standing.
A number of dynamics have, however, come into play in recent months and conspired, at least temporarily, to halt the Government's momentum. The first of these relates to the increasing likelihood of a formal pre-election pact between Fine Gael and Labour. Although the Green Party may not wish to enter into such an explicit voting arrangement, leader Trevor Sargent has made clear his own distaste at the notion of serving in a government with Fianna Fáil. The electorate now can see at least the semblance of an alternative government.
From the current administration's perspective, while the economy is, as mentioned, performing well, the one issue the public feels most strongly about at an emotive level - the health service - continues to falter. It will be recalled that Minister for Health Mary Harney's personal rating dropped by seven points between this January and February's polls in the aftermath of the court's ruling that deductions taken by State institutions from pensioners over the years were illegal.
More recently, RTÉ's Prime Time exposé of the treatment of residents at the Leas Cross nursing home in Swords reopened the debate on how our elderly are being treated by State-funded institutions. Just days before today's poll was conducted, the reason Prof Brendan Drumm decided to turn down the role of head of the Health Service Executive became the subject of an apparent dispute between himself and the Minister for Health.
Meanwhile, the Government and the Minister for Justice, Michael McDowell, were openly criticised by the McBrearty family for the manner in which their case of injustice was handled.
Within the context of an emerging alternative government and a Fianna Fáil-PD coalition under intense public scrutiny, we witness today significant shifts in opinion on a number of fronts.
First, the main opposition party, Fine Gael, has registered its highest opinion-poll rating in more than five years. The party has strengthened its appeal across the board, but more so among younger voters, those from rural areas and the mid to upper socio economic groupings. Although party leader Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating has slipped since last February, the proportion of voters actually dissatisfied with his performance remains statistically static.
The Labour Party has also performed well and has increased its support in urban regions in particular. Pat Rabbitte's own rating has been quite solid since last autumn, on just under 50 per cent. Meanwhile, Trevor Sargent's satisfaction level increases yet again to 38 per cent, with Green Party support solid at 4 per cent.
Although there may be some element of post-ardfheis "bounce" in the showing of the Labour and Green Parties, Table IV indicates that there has been a certain robustness to the performance of the potential rainbow coalition over the last three years. In fact, with the exception of the first two polls of 2005, combined FF-PD support has never exceeded that of the FG-Labour-GP bloc.
Fianna Fáil, and leader Bertie Ahern in particular, have invested significant energy in attempting to shift the party's positioning to one of caring inclusivity. The message has yet to sink in, and they will be very disappointed with the nine-point drop in support for the Government, and six-point slippage for Fianna Fáil and, indeed, Tánaiste Mary Harney.
Fianna Fáil obviously needs to turn its fortunes round over the next 12 months or so if it is to win its third consecutive election under Bertie Ahern.
In doing so, the resurgent opposition will undoubtedly require attention. At the same time, the party's popularity is inextricably linked to the public's perception of two of the Government's most vocal and high-profile Ministers: Mary Harney and Michael McDowell of the PDs.
At the time of writing, a group of Fianna Fáil backbenchers are threatening to use the issue of cafe bar licences to rein in what some of them see as the disproportionate influence of the Progressive Democrats on Government policy.
For political observers, the machinations between Fianna Fáil and the PDs over the coming months are likely to be at least as compelling as the performance of the opposition parties.