FG hopefuls still weighing election chances

Fine Gael MEPs and former TDs have just weeks left to decide if they are going to run again for the Dáil, writes Mark Hennessy…

Fine Gael MEPs and former TDs have just weeks left to decide if they are going to run again for the Dáil, writes Mark Hennessy.

For months, Fine Gael strategists have taken it as a given that three of their MEPs will return home for Dáil seats to fight in Election 2007.

The opinion is guaranteed to be correct in the case of Dublin's Gay Mitchell, who still represents Dublin South Central, and who was careful never to rule out the option of running again for the Dáil when he ran successfully for the European Parliament.

Cork South Central's Simon Coveney has been having a more public fight with his conscience, repeatedly declaring his delight with life as an MEP, while he equally pines for life in the Cabinet.

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Mr Coveney's place on the party's ticket in South Central would, according to some analysis, strengthen the party's bid to win two seats there - something it must do if the party is to have any hope of coming up with the numbers necessary to lead a coalition government along with Labour.

Ex-TD and current Cork lord mayor Deirdre Clune will be on the ticket, though the Bishopstown-based Cllr Jerry Buttimer, who polled nearly 2,000 votes in the 2004 local elections, is chomping at the bit to be given his chance at running for the Dáil.

Besides adding some geographical balance to the ticket, Buttimer would also help to mellow the "merchant prince" image offered for so long by Fine Gael to South Central, which was represented for decades by former FG deputy leader Peter Barry.

Though he has so far declined to make up his mind, Mr Coveney, judging by his actions, will be back in national politics, since his latest glossily-produced European newsletter was delivered to every home in the Cork South Central constituency - and not elsewhere.

In Leinster, Maireád McGuinness has been keeping her own counsel.

Living in Meath, the former journalist has clearly come to enjoy the European Parliament following the usual, gruelling learning curve.

Now, however, some in Fine Gael believe that she could run in Dublin North, or in Kildare South - the latter being the favourite since it still has some vestiges left of being a rural constituency.

The constituency was formerly represented by FG's ex-leader, Alan Dukes, until he came a cropper along with up to two dozen other Fine Gael household names in the 2002 election nightmare.

Meanwhile, tonight's Fine Gael national organisation committee will heavily influence the party's final decision on whether to run one, or two, candidates in Dublin South East.

Two candidates are bidding to run, Cllr Lucinda Creighton and Cllr Brian Gillen. Both are young, ambitious and hard working.

Party strategists have yet to decide whether to run the two of them, or let one off alone, for fears of splitting Fine Gael's vote in what will be one of the most contested elections in the constituency, where the Progressive Democrats' Michael McDowell, the Greens' John Gormley and Labour's Ruairí Quinn will all be carrying their parties' standard alone.

The selection convention in Dublin West is also due to take place in February, where Cllr Leo Varadkar, who received the highest vote in the local elections when he polled nearly 5,000 first preferences, is a certainty to run, though Senator Shiela Terry, who performed creditably during the 2002 debacle, is also likely to seek a nomination.

If Maireád McGuinness does not seek to run in Dublin North, Fine Gael will face a tough battle to regain a seat in the constituency - where former deputy leader Nora Owen lost out so dramatically four years ago.

Following her defeat, Ms Owen ruled out running again and she has shown no sign of changing her mind, leaving the Swords-based councillor, Anne Devitt, and her Fingal County Council colleague, Malahide-based Alan Farrell, in contention.

In addition, former county councillor Seán Dolphin and Balbriggan town councillor Seán Browne are also interested.

Party managers have clearly thrown their weight behind former Dublin South East TD Frances Fitzgerald's attempt to return to the Dáil representing Dublin Mid-West, despite a number of challengers, including the Clondalkin-based former senator, Cllr Therese Ridge.

The constituency is one of two halves, Lucan and Clondalkin, which have little to do with each other.

In 2002, Ms Ridge polled poorly, gathering less than 1,300 first preferences.

Even this paltry number reduced further in subsequent counts when less than half of them transferred to her Lucan-based running mate, Austin Currie.