FG hopes to win back seat from FF rivals

Constituency profile -   Dublin South West: In calculating the gains it needs to be in a position to form an alternative government…

Constituency profile -  Dublin South West:In calculating the gains it needs to be in a position to form an alternative government, Fine Gael is looking to recapture the seat it lost in 2002 in Dublin South West, a four-seat constituency which takes in the sprawling suburb of Tallaght and its environs.

The constituency was reduced to a four-seater last time out when Clondalkin was hived off to form the new entity of Dublin Mid West. In the changes Fine Gael Senator Brian Hayes - who topped the poll in his first outing in 1997 - fell victim to the nationwide losses suffered by his party.

The Fine Gael-Labour alliance this time around will help Hayes, who has the comfort of knowing that a strong first-preference vote will be bolstered by transfers from Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte.

A Hayes comeback will probably be at the expense of one of the two sitting Fianna Fáil deputies, Minister of State Conor Lenihan and the man known as "Mr Tallaght", Charlie O'Connor. In 2002 Fianna Fáil got 38.68 per cent of the vote, with Lenihan coming in third behind O'Connor, who was elected for the first time.

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An intense battle for political survival is under way between these two great Fianna Fáil rivals. Lenihan has the higher national profile of the two, with his Overseas Development Aid brief in the Department of Foreign Affairs. But O'Connor's long track record of political service in Tallaght is likely to give him the edge in the event of Fine Gael regaining its seat. It will be a close call, reflected in the fact that the Taoiseach has paid regular visits to the constituency.

From the high unemployment days of the early 1980s, Tallaght has been transformed over the past 20 years into a booming suburb of which the focal point is the Square shopping centre and Tallaght hospital. But problems remain.

One party that has paid huge attention to the constituency's social problems is Sinn Féin, and the man who is likely to top the poll again with a healthy first-preference vote is the party's sitting TD, Seán Crowe. His party machine has been remarkably successful in hoovering up votes in the housing estates of west Tallaght.

Last time, Sinn Féin secured 20.29 per cent of the vote, or 7,466 first preferences of the valid poll, and the feedback is that Crowe will repeat his performance in this election.

Labour got 19.80 per cent of the vote in 2002 and that was enough to get Rabbitte the last seat on the sixth count. He was elected leader of his party months after the last election and his high national profile should stand him in good stead on May 24th.

However, he is taking nothing for granted and is conscious that his commitments nationally mean he has not yet spent as much time on the doorsteps as he would like. But voters can expect to see more of him between now and polling day.

Also contesting the election is the Green Party's Elizabeth Davidson and local councillor Mick Murphy of the Socialist Party. While Murphy is confident of making an impact, he is highly unlikely to cause an upset.

Local man Ray Kelly, who campaigns on fathers' rights, is running as an Independent.

VERDICT

FF - 1, FG - 1, Lab - 1, SF - 1

Fine Gael gain from Fianna Fáil

LOCAL ISSUES

There is concern that the children's hospital in the Tallaght hospital complex will close. There is also a view that the hospital still hasn't received the resources, facilities and bed capacity that were promised. Crime is an issue, especially in pockets of west Tallaght. There is huge local grievance at the fact that Tallaght, with a population of about 90,000, only has one Garda station. Public transport and the need for an extension of the bus service is also an issue, despite the advent of Luas.