Fine Gael has made a substantial gain in public support in the first Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll to suggest the alternative Fine Gael/Labour coalition has a real prospect of election.
Fianna Fáil has suffered a matching slump in support while there has also been a drop in satisfaction with the performance of the Government, the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste.
The changes come after the recent Fine Gael Ardfheis and have happened despite high profile coverage of Fianna Fáil and the Taoiseach last weekend.
The state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 31 per cent, down 6 from the last Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll in January; Fine Gael 28 per cent, up 4; Labour 15 per cent, down 1; Sinn Féin 9 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 5 per cent, up 1; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, unchanged; others and independents 9 per cent, up 1.
Core support is: Fianna Fáil 30 per cent, down 6; Fine Gael 21 per cent, up 3; Labour 11 per cent, down 1; Sinn Féin 7 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 4 per cent, up 1; Progressive Democrats 2 per cent, down 1; others and independents 8 per cent, up 1; undecided 17 per cent, up 2.
Fine Gael's support is at its highest since Enda Kenny became leader and indeed its highest poll rating since January 2000. Fianna Fáil support in contrast is just one point above the 30 per cent it achieved in September 2003, its lowest point since Irish Times/mrbi began some 25 years ago.
The Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats coalition parties have a combined support of just 34 per cent compared to 43 per cent for Fine Gael and Labour. The Green Party, currently on 5 per cent, is seen as a potential participant in a government involving Fine Gael and Labour, although it plans to fight the next election independent of alliances.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a national quota sample of 1,000 people at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State. It took place after a weekend in which the Taoiseach received high profile coverage in relation to Fianna Fáil's 80th anniversary celebrations, but also in the wake of the Fine Gael Ardfheis the previous weekend.
Fine Gael national director of elections Frank Flannery said the results were very positive, although he insisted they were only an indicator, not a predictor.
"Were these results to be replicated on polling day, it would be very bad news for the government parties and definitely lead to a change of government," he said.
"I think it's an indicator that the sustained critique of the government by Labour and Fine Gael is having a fairly profound effect by now and possibly an indicator that the more robust approach to real solutions to real problems announced by Fine Gael is beginning to punch through."
A spokeswoman for Taoiseach Bertie Ahern said the poll results were disappointing.