If Fine Gael is on the way back to government it must retake at least one seat in Dún Laoghaire, write Stephen Collinsand Liam Reid.
Up to 2002 the constituency was always a Fine Gael stronghold and it regularly returned the lowest vote for Fianna Fáil in the entire country.
The extent of Fine Gael's collapse in the last election was encapsulated in Dún Laoghaire, when the party lost both its seats. It was the first time since the inception of the constituency in 1948 that it failed to return a Fine Gael TD.
Dún Laoghaire has often been a touchstone for Irish politics, reflecting the national trend. In November 1982 it elected three Fine Gael TDs, while in 1992 first-time candidate Niamh Bhreathnach swept in on the Labour Spring tide.
In 2002 Fianna Fáil and the PDs won three of the five Dún Laoghaire seats on their way to a comprehensive victory.
One of those seats is certain to go this time around and a second could even be in danger.
The issues being raised in Dún Laoghaire reflect the established, prosperous nature of much of the area, especially the stratospheric prices that even the most modest homes can fetch. Property prices and stamp duty are issues for many of the older, middle-class voters, concerned about the ability of their children to find homes in the constituency.
Tied to this are development and conservation concerns. The Dún Laoghaire Baths controversy over the proposed redevelopment of the site generated a successful grassroots campaign as did the council's plans for Sunday clamping.
Proposed property deals on local golf courses have also prompted local campaigns.
In terms of seats, the Minister for Education Mary Hanafin, a possible future leader of Fianna Fáil, is seen as secure while Labour environment spokesman Eamon Gilmore, a likely minister in a Fine Gael/Labour coalition, should also have no trouble holding his seat.
Although it is one of the wealthiest constituencies in the country, there is also a considerable population surviving on low incomes in large housing in areas like Ballybrack. This has meant that the constituency traditionally elects at least one left-wing TD, and in some cases two.
Green Party TD Ciarán Cuffe should also be safe but his vote could be squeezed by a resurgent Fine Gael on the one side and the colourful socialist campaigner, Richard Boyd Barrett, on the other. Sinn Féin's Eoin Ó Broin may also eat into Cuffe's support.
Fianna Fáil's TD Barry Andrews could be in trouble if the tide runs strongly against the party but his local work and a generally good media profile should save him.
Progressive Democrats TD Fiona O'Malley is probably the Government TD in most danger. A popular and energetic Dáil performer and a solid constituency campaigner, she defied the pundits who had written her off in 2002.
If she pulls it off again it will probably be at the expense of Mr Andrews.
Fine Gael looks sure of one seat and could even be in the shake-up for a second if the national tide continues to run in its favour.
Former minister Sean Barrett is set to return to the Dáil while the capable cathaoirleach of the local council, Eugene Regan, and Dublin GAA board chairman, John Bailey, are slugging it out in the drive for a second Fine Gael seat and they could pull in the best part of a quota between them.
When the votes of Labour's second candidate Cllr Oisín Quinn, who has waged an impressive campaign, are thrown into the mix, a third seat for the Fine Gael-Labour alternative is a real possibility but it will depend on solid transfers between the three.
The likeliest outcome is that Mary Hanafin, Eamon Gilmore, Sean Barrett and Ciarán Cuffe will take four of the five seats. After that anything could happen with Fiona O'Malley and Barry Andrews both under pressure from Fine Gael and Labour.
Local development controversies such as the sale of golf club lands are likely to feature in some areas of the constituency. Extension of public transport, including the Luas to Cherrywood, will also feature. Property prices and stamp duty are also concerns for voters.