Fine Gael is set to move the writ for the Tipperary South by-election this week, thus allowing Mr Michael Noonan's first electoral test to be held before the end of June.
The party yesterday circulated the motion moving the writ, and the motion is expected to feature on the Dail order paper from today. It is then open to Mr Noonan formally to move the writ in the Dail at any time.
The writ could be moved as early as today, and is very likely to be moved this week. The Dail does not sit next week, and moving it the following week would mean the poll would not take place until July.
Once Mr Noonan moves the writ, the by-election will take place within 21 to 28 days on a date set by the Minister for the Environment.
Senior party strategists have been divided in recent weeks on when to hold the by-election. Some argued that as the party is favourite to win, an early poll would give the beleaguered party a much-needed morale boost.
Others say the party would be taking a risk by holding the by-election in the immediate aftermath of damaging revelations concerning past fundraising.
Moving the writ for the poll is the prerogative of Mr Noonan, as it is traditionally up to the leader of the party whose loss caused the vacancy to decide when the by-election takes place. This by-election has been caused by the death of Theresa Ahearn.
It is unlikely that having set in train the by-election procedure, Mr Noonan would postpone the contest until autumn. Such a postponement could leave him open to accusations of indecisiveness.
Fine Gael Senator Tom Hayes is the favourite to win at this stage. Other candidates will include Fianna Fail Councillor Michael Maguire, Labour Councillor Denis Landy and Ms Phil Prendergast of the Workers' and Unemployed Action Group.