Fianna Fáil is now in a stronger position than at any time since the last election, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, which shows support for the party up by one percentage point to 40 per cent since the last poll six weeks ago. Satisfaction with Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and the Government has risen also, writes Stephen Collins, Political Correspondent.
Support for Fine Gael is also up while Labour has remained steady, and all the smaller parties have lost support since the last Irish Timespoll in October.
The adjusted figures for party support are: Fianna Fáil 40 per cent (up one percentage point); Fine Gael 27 per cent (up one point); Labour 11 per cent (no change); Sinn Féin 7 per cent (down one point); Green Party 4 per cent (down two points); the Progressive Democrats 3 per cent (down one point) and Independents/others 8 per cent (up two points).
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies, capturing the mood of the electorate before the Budget next Wednesday.
The core vote for the parties when the undecided voters are included is: Fianna Fáil 38 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael 20 per cent (up one point); Labour 8 per cent (no change); Sinn Féin 5 per cent (down one point); Green Party 3 per cent (down one point); PDs 2 per cent (down one point); Independents/others 7 per cent (down two points); undecided 17 per cent (down two points).
Satisfaction with the Government has risen to 52 per cent (up six points) while satisfaction with Mr Ahern is up by a similar margin to 59 per cent, the second-highest rating he has achieved since the last election.
Satisfaction with Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny is running at 43 per cent (up one point); Pat Rabbitte is on 46 per cent (down two points); Michael McDowell is on 38 per cent (up six points); Trevor Sargent is at 40 per cent (down three points) and Gerry Adams is on 43 per cent (no change).
In terms of coalition options, the Fianna Fáil-PD combination has improved its position by six points since October and is now the favourite of 42 per cent of the electorate. The Fine Gael-Labour alliance, with the possible participation of the Greens, gets 31 per cent support, the same as last month.
Some 13 per cent would choose neither of these options, while 14 per cent had no opinion.
When asked which of these possible coalitions was most likely to form the next government, a massive gap opened up between the two sides with 57 per cent saying the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition was most likely to be in government after the election and just 17 per cent saying the Fine Gael-led alternative coalition was likely to achieve power.
Fine Gael can take comfort from the fact that the party has consolidated its level of support at 27 per cent. Between the last election and January of this year Fine Gael ranged between 20 and 25 per cent in TNSmrbi polls. In May the party made the breakthrough to a higher level at 28 per cent and although that dropped back to 26 per cent in October the one-point rise in the current poll shows the party now operating in a higher range in the polls than it has done for more than two decades.
The three smaller parties have taken a hit in this poll. The PDs have dropped back to 3 per cent, after putting on support in the last poll. They are now back to the position they were in before the change of leadership from Mary Harney to Michael McDowell.
Sinn Féin has dropped again to 7 per cent and this is the lowest poll rating for the party since before the last general election. The party is now way off the high of 12 per cent it polled two years ago.
The Greens have also suffered a significant drop of two points to 4 per cent. The party has high hopes of making a significant impact in the election but will need to recover lost ground to do so.
One trend in the poll is that support for the bigger parties has consolidated in the run-up to the election.