CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Kerry North: Fianna Fáil faces humiliation in its former stronghold writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
Kerry North might yet produce the big story of the election, if the constituency inflicts on Fianna Fáil the humiliation of having no seat in its one-time stronghold.
All indications are that Sinn Féin's Mr Martin Ferris will challenge for the Fianna Fáil seat. Local opinion polls have varied, but the most recent, in The Kerryman, showed him topping the poll.
The poll also indicated that Mr Dick Spring, of Labour, and Fine Gael's Mr Jimmy Deenihan would hold their seats.
The decline of Fianna Fáil in Kerry North is remarkable. From a high of having two seats, and over 50 per cent of the vote, the party's outgoing TD, Mr Denis Foley, found himself outpolled in first preferences by Mr Ferris in the 1997 general election.
Fianna Fáil's 26.31 per cent share of the vote was 10.2 per cent below its previous lowest in 1992. Mr Ferris has since consolidated his position through his election to Kerry County Council and Tralee Urban Council.
Mr Foley, who resigned from the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party after it was revealed he was an Ansbacher account holder, is retiring after 20 years in the Oireachtas. The party's two candidates are Mr Tom McEllistrim and Senator Dan Kiely.
The intense rivalry between the two candidates mirrors the divisions that have bedevilled the local organisation for years. An appeal for unity from the Taoiseach fell on deaf ears.
Mr Spring and Mr Deenihan are undertaking intensive campaigns, leaving nothing to chance. Mr Spring has made it clear he is interested in a ministerial position if Labour returns to power. He has delivered hugely to the constituency in the past, as has his sister, Ms Maeve Spring, a councillor and constituency secretary. Ms Spring was seen as the party's next Dáil candidate, but she is recovering from an illness, which ruled her out.
Mr Deenihan, a former minister of state in the Rainbow government, took a seat for Fine Gael in 1987. A hard-working constituency representative, and close to the Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan, he is expected to retain his seat irrespective of the party's national performance.
This would leave the battle for the third seat between Mr Ferris and the Fianna Fáil candidates. Mr McEllistrim and Mr Kiely are formidable vote-getters, as they showed in the 1999 local elections.
But Mr Ferris remains a huge threat. Much may depend on the local reaction to allegations of vigilante activities on the part of Sinn Féin, which has been strongly denied by Mr Ferris and the party.
To achieve an overall majority, Fianna Fáil would need to hold Kerry North. As of now, it looks like an uphill struggle.
There are two Independent candidates in the constituency, Mr James Kennedy and Mr Anthony O'Connor.
Prediction: FG 1; Lab 1; SF 1.
FF loss to SF.