ANALYSIS:New poll indicates all the main parties face potential records of one kind or another, writes STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor
THE FORTHCOMING general election is promising to be one of the most dramatic in Irish political history going on the results of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
Fianna Fáil has dropped to a new record low, and the party is facing a meltdown unless a dramatic revival in its fortunes takes place over the next two months. A surge in support for Sinn Féin following Pearse Doherty’s victory in the Donegal South West byelection has left the party poised for its best election since 1923.
Labour has been ousted from the top position it held in the last two Irish Times polls, and Fine Gael has moved back into the leading position it first achieved in November 2008. The recovery indicates that Fine Gael is back on track to become the biggest party in the State for the first time in its history.
The poll indicates that the election may turn into a four-way contest, with all of the main Dáil parties facing potential records of one kind or another.
A fascinating aspect of the poll is that the combined support for Labour, Sinn Féin and Independents/Others is now at 51 per cent, opening up the prospect of a Labour-led left bloc as an alternative to a Fine Gael-Labour coalition.
When voting intentions were broken down by those who had decided how they would vote and those who might still change their minds, some interesting differences with the overall poll data emerged.
Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin all improved their ratings by 2 per cent among decided voters, while Labour was 4 per cent weaker. Independents were also weaker among decided voters.
What will really worry Fianna Fáil strategists is that while the party’s national vote has plummeted to just 17 per cent, it is down to a miserable 11 per cent in Dublin.
It means that the party faces a wipe out in the capital where it now trails in fourth place behind the other Dáil parties or in fifth place if the Independents are included.
Things are only a little bit better in Munster, where Fianna Fáil is on 18 per cent. It is on 21 per cent in the rest of Leinster, and 20 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
Across the age groups, Fianna Fáil’s best category by far is the over-65s, where it is on 33 per cent. People in this category were largely insulated from cuts in the Budget, and are much more likely to vote Fianna Fáil than any other age group. Another consolation for the Government is that the over 65s are the most likely people to vote in elections.
The next highest support for Fianna Fáil is the 50 to 64 age group, where support stands at 18 per cent. The party’s worst group is the 25 to 34s, where it is on just 10 per cent.
In terms of social categories, Fianna Fáil does best among farmers, where it is on 23 per cent. Its vote is strongest among the poorest DE social category and declines steadily up the social spectrum to the AB category in which it is weakest.
By contrast, support for Fine Gael is up significantly since the last poll across most regions, social categories and age groups. Most significantly, the party vote in Dublin is back up to 25 per cent, and it has narrowed the gap with Labour having fallen far behind in the last poll.
The strongest region for the party is Connacht-Ulster, where its vote is up to 41 per cent. It is at 31 per cent in Munster, and 28 per cent in the rest of Leinster.
In social terms, Fine Gael is strongest among farmers where it gets 43 per cent support.
More significantly there has been a strong rise in support among the best-off AB voters, where the party is now on 39 per cent. Across other social classes the party vote is stable at just under 30 per cent.
Labour has lost its first place since the last poll but it is still attracting record levels of support. If that holds until the election it is on course for its best ever result.
The party has slipped back in Dublin to 32 per cent. That is still enough to keep the party in first place in the capital but it shows that it will have to battle hard to win coveted second seats in some of the urban constituencies.
Outside the capital the party is on a respectable 26 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 23 per cent in Munster, where Labour comes in second place to Fine Gael.
In Connacht-Ulster the party gets just 13 per cent, and has dropped back into fourth place behind Sinn Féin.
In class terms, Labour is strongest among the best-off AB voters, where it registers 31 per cent, and weakest among the poorest DE category, where it is on 18 per cent.
In age terms, support for the party is fairly evenly spread across the groups with the exception of the over 65s and the 18 to 24-year-olds. where it is significantly weaker.
The biggest gains have been made by Sinn Féin where the party is now at record levels in an Irish Times poll.
In regional terms it is strongest in Connacht-Ulster, where it gets 19 per cent. The party is on 15 per cent in Dublin, 17 per cent in Munster and 12 per cent in the rest of Leinster.
In class terms, there is a huge difference between the poorest DE group, where the party gets 22 per cent, and the best off AB category, where it is on just 3 per cent. The party is more attractive to men than women, but the proportions are more even than in previous polls.
In age terms, Sinn Féin’s strongest category is the 25 to 34-year-olds, where it gets 20 per cent, and its weakest among the over 65s.
Green Party support is stuck on just 2 per cent, and while it is slightly better in Dublin than other regions on this performance it will be lucky to hold even one seat in the forthcoming election.
The level of support for Independents and Others is up. It is strongest in Dublin, where it is 14 per cent. In class terms, the better-off AB and C1 voters are most likely to back Independents or smaller parties.