When comparisons are made with the party's showing now and at the sametime in the run-up to the three previous elections, its potential is clear,writes Denis Coghlan
The dream of an overall Dáil majority withered and blew away during the days of Charlie Haughey. And Fianna Fáil's core value of no coalition was abandoned when Des O'Malley and the Progressive Democrats agreed to share power with the enemy in 1989.
The results of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll will give Fianna Fáil officials cause to dream again because the party's support level - excluding undecideds - was touching 45 per cent at the beginning of this week.
Based on simulated ballot papers carrying the names of candidates in all 42 constituencies, Fianna Fáil gathered 39 per cent of the first-preference vote, with 20 per cent going to Fine Gael; 10 per cent to the Labour Party; 2 per cent to the Progressive Democrats; 3 per cent to the Green Party; 5 per cent to Sinn Féin; 7 per cent to Independents and 15 per cent were still undecided. When the "don't knows" were allocated in accordance with party strengths, Fianna Fáil added 6 points, as against 3 for Fine Gael, 2 per cent for the Labour Party and 1 per cent for Sinn Féin.
Because of the new methodology used, exact comparisons between recent polls are not valid. But there is plenty of material to give hope to each of the three major parties.
It is only when Fianna Fáil's performance in the run-up to the last three general elections is examined that its potential in this contest becomes clear. On the basis of its current core vote of 39 per cent, the party is six points ahead of its showing at a similar stage in the 1992 general election and 3 points in advance of the 1997 figure.
On both of those occasions, Fianna Fáil ended up with a final tally of 39 per cent of the vote on polling day. An extra six per cent in the bag in this election would place Fianna Fáil within a whisper of an overall majority. And 3 per cent of a lift would put the party comfortably back in government, with or without the Progressive Democrats.
For Fine Gael, which has been wandering in the political wilderness for most of the past year, the poll provides reassurance that, while seats may be lost, there will be no meltdown. The situation is no worse than it was in 1992, although the party is two points off the pace set in 1997. And, if the increase in the level of party support since last February is not due entirely to candidate recognition factors, the party stands to make further progress in the weeks ahead.
The message is somewhat similar for the Labour Party. Its level of support has been inching up in recent months, but there is no evidence of a repeat of the Spring Tide that swept the party into government in 1992.
The use of mock ballot papers, and the fact the parties are contesting a limited number of constituencies, has eroded the national standing of Sinn Féin, the Green Party, the Progressive Democrats and Independents in this poll.
In spite of that, they will do well in selected constituencies and their transfers will be vital in filling the final seats, where Fine Gael is in competition with both Fianna Fáil and the Labour Party.
Vote management and transfers may yet dictate the shape of the next government. In that regard, Fianna Fáil has an in-built advantage as the largest party, likely to benefit from early eliminations. But voter discipline is also tighter within Fianna Fáil, with 54 per cent of votes transferring between party candidates, compared to 40 per cent for Fine Gael.
In the last general election, the transfer of Progressive Democrats votes proved vital for Fianna Fáil. That pattern looks set to continue, with 63 per cent of votes likely to move between the Government parties.
A similar, if less emphatic, pattern is repeated where the transfer of votes from Independents, Sinn Féin and the Green Party to Fianna Fáil is concerned. The party's strategy of actively seeking votes from across the political divide is likely to pay handsome dividends.
The high satisfaction rating with the Government, at 57 per cent, is also having a serious impact on transfer intentions. A general feel-good factor arising from higher living standards, the personal popularity of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the near-disappearance of old Civil War animosities, all contribute to a pattern where 26 per cent of Fine Gael second preferences go to Fianna Fáil, as against 15 per cent to Labour.
In the same vein, 37 per cent of Labour Party transfers go to Fianna Fáil, as against 26 per cent to Fine Gael.
There is, as yet, no firm evidence that Fianna Fáil support has fallen since the election was called, in line with previous patterns. That process may, however, be under way, just as the increase in the level of support for Fine Gael and the Labour Party may not be entirely due to candidate recognition factors.
On the basis of this snapshot in time, support for Fianna Fáil appears to be holding firm. But it is more likely to diminish than to increase as the opposition parties concentrate on the issues of health, crime, political sleaze and housing in the weeks ahead.