CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: LIMERICK:THOUGH IT has been traditionally viewed as a Fianna Fáil stronghold, the political outlook for the new Limerick constituency has been altered by boundary changes and the resignation of sitting TD John Cregan.
The surprise decision by the deputy Government chief whip not to seek re-election means the party has only one candidate running in the constituency.
Since 1948 the party has held two of the predominantly rural constituency’s three seats, with the exception of 1997, when internal tensions in Fianna Fáil allowed Fine Gael take two seats.
In some elections, such as in 1981 and 1982, only Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael candidates appeared on the ballot.
In 1987, Progressive Democrats candidate John McCoy was elected, which was the only time a candidate from a party other than Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael was elected in the constituency in over six decades.
Following the latest boundary changes, the western part of the constituency has become part of the new Kerry North West- Limerick constituency, while the remainder, along with most of the rural parts of Limerick East, have been transferred to the new Limerick constituency. Limerick City is a separate four-seat constituency.
Given the party’s current standing in the opinion polls, Fianna Fáil’s dominance in Co Limerick has certainly come to an end – but Cregan’s shock decision has undoubtedly played into the hands of running mate Niall Collins.
Nevertheless, Collins, a member of the well-known political dynasty, topped the poll in the last general election ahead of Cregan, with the two garnering 47 per cent of the vote between them.
Cregan, who topped the poll in 2002 and comfortably took the second seat for his party in the last election, bowed out of the upcoming race after he was the only Fianna Fáil Limerick TD not selected to sit on Micheál Martin’s new front bench.
He claimed the elevation of Niall Collins to the position of spokesperson on defence sent out a clear signal that the new party leader was strongly favouring one candidate over the other.
The sitting Fine Gael TD, Dan Neville, is expected to top the poll with Collins likely to take the runner-up spot.
Cllr William O’Donnell, a first cousin of Limerick city TD Kieran O’Donnell, and Cllr Patrick O’Donovan join Neville on the ticket this time out.
O’Donovan is one of the favourites for the remaining seat, but some would question whether Fine Gael’s decision to run three candidates risks splitting the vote.
O’Donovan also faces a serious challenge from Labour councillor James Heffernan, following his impressive performance in the last local elections where he topped the poll in the Kilmallock electoral area.
Heffernan secured just 5.6 per cent of the first preference votes in the 2007 general election, but given it was his first time out and following his subsequent local election performance he could yet be a contender for the third seat.
Labour however has not held a seat in Limerick county for more than 60 years. Perhaps the transfer of the rural parts of Limerick East will dilute some of the strong traditional vote.
OUTGOING TDs: Niall Collins (FF), John Cregan (FF), Dan Neville (FG).
DECLARED TO DATE: Niall Collins (FF), Dan Neville (FG), Patrick O'Donovan (FG), Bill O'Donnell (FG), James Heffernan (Lab), Stephen Wall (GP), John Dillion (Ind), Patrick O'Doherty (Ind), Con Cremin (Ind), Seamus Sherlock (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES: Unemployment and emigration are big issues in a constituency with a large manufacturing sector. There have been job losses at Pfizer in Askeaton, one of West Limerick's largest employers, and the fallout from the closure of Dell's manufacturing facility in Raheen continues to be felt. The campaign for the realignment of a treacherous stretch of road along the N21 at Barnagh, Newcastle West, is also am important local issue following five road deaths on the road last year.
VERDICT: FF 1, FG 2