The Government parties have a fight on their hands if they are to convince the significant number of remaining Don't Know voters to back the Nice Treaty, writes Ian McShane
Four months after the general election, the political landscape in Ireland is quite unsettled.
Fine Gael, with a significantly depleted number of seats, has elected its third leader in 18 months. The Labour Party will elect a successor to Ruairí Quinn by the end of October, with all four contenders for the post promising a radical overhaul of the party. Thus far, it is fair to say the role of Opposition leader has yet to be assumed, with no visible sign of the Greens, Sinn Féin or Independents making any significant impact on the Opposition benches.
Meanwhile, the newly formed Government has emerged from what must have been one of the shortest honeymoon periods in the history of the State. Gaping holes have opened in the Department of Finance's pre-election budget estimates as presented to the electorate. A range of public spending adjustments has already been announced, with Government representatives tentatively testing the public mood on a number of potential measures. These include the curtailment or abolishment of the Special Savings Investment Account Scheme, the re-introduction of third-level fees and the taxation of children's allowances.
In interpreting today's poll findings, it should be borne in mind that interviewing was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, directly after the publication of the Department of Finance memo by the Sunday Tribune, and during the period of intense media coverage of the story immediately afterwards.
So how have the main party leaders, and the Government itself, fared since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll conducted in May?
Table A indicates that Government satisfaction levels have plummeted 25 points since May. At 36 per cent, this is the lowest rating for a government under Bertie Ahern since he was first elected Taoiseach five years ago, and it is matched by his lowest ever personal rating of 51 per cent. It is clear that the public disquiet with the Government relates solely to Fianna Fáil, with Mary Harney's rating as Tánaiste remaining stable at 57 per cent, and core support for the PDs up two points to 4 per cent.
Both Trevor Sargent's and Gerry Adams's ratings have improved since the general election, and while Enda Kenny's is on just 28 per cent, it should be noted that a sizeable 51 per cent of the electorate have yet to form an opinion of the new leader.
Table B sets down the core and adjusted party support levels recorded during this week's poll, with the figures in brackets referring to the last comparable poll conducted in February of this year. The party support figures are again based on the respondents being asked to which party or independent candidate would they give their first preference vote if there was a general election tomorrow, and the results have been adjusted (third column) to counteract the propensity of polls to overstate levels of support for Fianna Fáil.
In summary, existing support for Fianna Fáil is down significantly on both the last comparable opinion poll and indeed on the 42 per cent of the popular vote it garnered at the general election.
All of the other main political parties have benefited from this downturn in Fianna Fáil's fortunes. While it is difficult to envisage Fianna Fáil achieving a percentage of first preference votes as low as 34 per cent in a general election, the real concern for the Government is the degree to which such high levels of dissatisfaction with the way the country is being run may impact on people's voting behaviour in the Nice referendum next month.
With a view to addressing this question, respondents' voting intentions were cross-analysed by the extent to which they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the Government. Of the 37 per cent who appear to be committed Yes voters, roughly half are satisfied and half are dissatisfied with the Government.
Of the 25 per cent who identify themselves as No voters, however, a significant majority (69 per cent) are dissatisfied with the Government, indicating that the underlying disgruntlement with the current administration may be guiding some voters towards rejecting the Nice treaty in protest.
Furthermore, if the referendum is to be passed, a significant number of the current Undecideds will need to convert to the Yes camp. With this in mind, the fact that a majority of Undecideds are also unhappy with the Government will be a cause of concern for some.
The second key factor in interpreting the Nice poll findings relates to the extent to which prospective voters understand the issues involved in the treaty.
Analysis of the pre-referendum poll findings for both the 2001 Nice and 2002 Abortion referendums indicated that a large proportion of those registering as Undecideds understood practically nothing of what the treaty or legislation was about. It is my contention that a proportion of this section of the electorate actually voted No on referendum day in protest at what they perceived as an attempt by the establishment to rush through the referendums without sufficient debate of the issues.
In this instance, it should be noted that seven in 10 of those currently undecided profess to understand little or nothing of the issues, with the vast majority committed to voting either Yes or No claiming to understand some or all of the issues.
In summary, it would appear that the Government, and Fianna Fáil in particular, will be fighting for a Yes vote on two fronts. On the one hand, a large proportion of the population will require reassurance that all of the pertinent issues have been presented and debated in a clear and balanced fashion. On the other, bridges need to be rebuilt between Fianna Fáil and those who voted for them in May and now feel let down.
Within this context, those in the Yes camp will take some comfort from the fact that they have three weeks to make their case, and substantial resources to do so.
Ian McShane is the managing director of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland Ltd