With his first Budget, Brian Cowen must get voters to like him, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
As the Taoiseach surveyed the wreckage after last June's elections, he decided Brian Cowen would be the key figure in the attempt to win a third term in Government for himself and Fianna Fáil.
It had been the worst election result for the party since 1927. Voters everywhere had told party canvassers that they had broken their promises and were uncaring, arrogant and out of touch. The then finance minister, Charlie McCreevy, was the focus of much of this discontent. It wasn't only the issues that grated (cuts in services, Punchestown, the O'Flaherty appointment, decentralisation), but McCreevy's accompanying certainty - seen by many as arrogance - in rejecting all criticism. This style was defining not just McCreevy but the Government.
Ahern determined that the Government had to change style and be believed to be changing direction if it was to have a chance of returning to office again in 2007. We may never know how much pressure was put on McCreevy to take the EU Commissionership. But he took it, opening the way for a most audacious programme of re-invention.
Next Wednesday 44-year-old Brian Cowen gives the first Budget of this re-invention era. A superficial survey of the Fianna Fáil front bench would not immediately identify Cowen as the choice to give his party a voter-friendly public face. Many voters take a deep set against the often sour individual who turns in tetchy performances on radio and television. Those who meet him are impressed with a warm and engaging man, but most people have never met him.
However, his lugubrious look and sometimes rather charmless outings on the airwaves conceal a courteous and reflective person. He can appear - misleadingly - disinterested in and tired by political life. For one spoken of as a future Fianna Fáil leader, he needs to do something about this.
His positive attributes may yet overcome these negative aspects of his image. The Taoiseach thinks the world of him and sees him as his preferred successor. If it were a popularity contest among backbenchers or party members, Cowen would probably win. He is an enthusiastic social drinker, great company and a great mimic who can be very, very funny.
The officials with whom he has worked in the Department of Foreign Affairs for the last four years loved him for his intelligence. Not only could he assimilate a complex brief in lightning speed, he surprised them with unplanned interventions that made a difference during important international meetings.
NOW HE HAS the most senior ministry at a crucial time. In mid-July, more than two months before appointing him to Finance, Ahern had his first discussions with Cowen on how to repair Fianna Fáil's image. With McCreevy gone, there was never the remotest possibility that Ahern would choose anyone but Cowen to take over. The old political cliché about his having a safe pair of hands is only part of the story: he also has a remarkable political instinct that works equally in Laois/Offaly and on the world stage.
Wolfe Tones-type music blared from the speakers during his early campaign rallies. There is a strong traditional Republican and conservative Catholic element in Offaly, and Cowen garnered much of this support. His father, Ber, had been the junior of two Fianna Fáil deputies to Ger Connolly. But after winning the 1984 by-election necessitated by his father's death, Brian Cowen became the senior deputy very quickly.
This happened despite his not being the most obsessive of constituency workers. He is not a typical backslapping deputy, being more personally reserved and more comfortable in genuine conversation than in doing 100 handshakes a minute.
There are TDs who, when in front of a meeting with angry constituents, will promise much more than they can deliver in order to sort out some local problem. "Faced with 200 baying citizens it's very easy for one TD to try to trump the others," says one local opponent. "Cowen will never do that." He remains the undisputed poll topper in Laois/Offaly, where Fianna Fáil wins three out of five seats. For all the claims that it is "Parlon Country", it is clearly "Cowen Country".
At a European level, he was seen as someone who intervened during long foreign ministers' meetings only when he had something to say, and what he had to say was normally very useful. So in June, 2003, at the EU summit in Thessaloniki just after the US invasion of Iraq, Cowen was asked to lead the discussion on how to repair the transatlantic relationship. At the informal foreign ministers' meeting in Tullamore during Ireland's EU presidency, a subtle Cowen proposal effectively locked the EU into a position more supportive of the Palestinians than it might otherwise have been, in the wake of the Israeli announcement of its planned unilateral withdrawal from Gaza.
After late-night negotiation sessions in Nice, on the EU treaty of the same name, he entertained politicians, officials and journalists with top-quality mimicry of Blair, Schröder and Chirac. He was also reported to have made perceptive and important interventions during the talks when others were fading due to sleep deprivation.
In Finance, Cowen will be required to show different skills. He has already shown a markedly different style from his predecessor. At Dáil question time, McCreevy would sometimes be flippant and unpredictable and would offer unasked-for opinions on a variety of issues. Cowen, however, is combative, appearing to go into question time with the sole purpose of giving his Opposition questioners no opportunity to score points off him.
JUST AS THERE is none of the colourful McCreevy flourishes during question time, there will be no risky surprises in the Budget. Last July, after the Taoiseach and Cowen had their first conversations on the new strategy, it was clear that there would be no repeat of the reckless increases in spending in the two years before 2002. It was these increases which necessitated the post-election change of direction that so angered the voters. Rather, money will be targeted at voter-sensitive areas.
Last week, Cowen showed that the process is well under way, as the Taoiseach provided background music with talk of socialism and helping the less well off. The 30,000 extra medical cards and 200,000 GP cards in the Estimates will neutralise the claim that the promise in this area was broken. The Government has said money is on the way for the promised 2,000 gardaí. Major funding has been provided for disability, an issue on which the Opposition has been hammering the Government for several years. The decentralisation commitment was scaled back a couple of days ago.
In next week's Budget, we can expect Cowen to neutralise other criticisms. The perception that the Government is one for the rich is helped by the dozens of tax breaks available for the wealthy. Expect to see many of these capital allowances scaled back and phased out. The tax package is likely to concentrate on helping the average working family. The capital spending programme may contain some good news surprises.
Cowen's performance over the next two years is crucial to whether the Government can be re-elected. It is also crucial to whether he can become Taoiseach some time after that.