Constituency Notebook: It's the Noonan factor v the de Valera factor in Clare, writes Éibhir Mulqueen, Midwest Correspondent
Fine Gael supporters are relying on the "Noonan factor" to help them elect a second candidate in the four-seater Clare constituency. They must overcome the influence of another Limerick man, Eamon de Valera, who is commanding Fianna Fáil loyalty beyond the grave.
His granddaughter, Síle, was parachuted into the constituency from her native Dublin in 1982, but since 1987 she has been elected. As an outgoing Cabinet Minister, her base in Ennis seems secure. Meanwhile her veteran party colleagues, Mr Brendan Daly and Mr Tony Killeen, are strategically well placed, in the west and the north of the county respectively.
Fianna Fáil has been making the right noises about maintaining the stopover status of Shannon Airport, whereby 50 per cent of transatlantic flights must land there.
Meanwhile, in a cute piece of electioneering, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, stated during his walkabout around Ennis last week that the economically marginalised west Clare town of Kilrush was top of the list for decentralisation of a section of the Civil Service. It is likely to bolster support for Mr Daly, the weakest of the Fianna Fáil candidates, and impact on the votes of his main locally-based rival, Senator Madeleine Taylor-Quinn, of Fine Gael.
The main issues for Fine Gael and the other parties are health services in the county and the postponement by the National Roads Authority of the Ennis bypass project. Ennis Chamber of Commerce is attempting to make this a single-issue campaign for the election and has put up billboards with such messages as: "If we had our bypass, you'd be home by now".
Fine Gael is pinning its hopes of a second seat on her on the assumption that its sitting TD for 20 years, Mr Donal Carey, will be re-elected. Even this modest ambition may not be realised. A TG4 poll in January showed Mr Carey may be ousted by the senator. He gained 13 per cent of the first-preference vote, and Senator Taylor-Quinn 11 per cent. Transfers between the two were "not conclusive to the precise outcome of the fourth seat". The other three, it predicted, would go to the sitting Fianna Fáil TDs.
The result came on the back of a botched selection convention for Mr Carey who failed to be put on the ticket by party members and, instead, had to be endorsed at party headquarters level. The third Fine Gael candidate is a county councillor, Mr Pat Breen, a farmer from the west of the county and a first-time Dáil candidate.
Declaring for Labour is a councillor with Ennis UDC, Mr Michael Corley, a teacher. But Labour's fortunes have flagged since the heady days in 1992 when Dr Moosajee Bhamjee, a South African-born psychiatrist, was elected. He stood down in 1997, but his replacement, the former Irish Countrywoman's Association president, Ms Bridín Twist, polled only 3.6 per cent of first preferences.
Mr Brian Meaney of the Greens also polled 3.6 per cent of the vote in 1997 but can expect a greater share of the vote this year. According to the TG4 poll, he would gain 7 per cent of the vote. He is campaigning on improved rail access to the region, with a commuter service linking Limerick with Shannon and Ennis, and is intent on surpassing Labour and making the Greens the third best-supported party in Clare. The Progressive Democrats are not fielding a candidate.
Prediction: FF 3, FG 1. No change.