Fianna Fail's support has dropped by eight percentage points to 48 per cent in four months, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. It is the party's lowest rating since the 1997 general election.
Support for the Progressive Democrats, at 4 per cent, has risen to its highest since the election, as the party moved to a position of qualified support for the minority Coalition.
The Government's satisfaction rating has dropped by 16 percentage points since October. A clear majority of voters also believe a general election should, or will, be called if allegations are proven at the two sitting tribunals.
The Taoiseach's personal rating has fallen by 11 percentage points, from 81 per cent. Despite the impact of tribunal-related controversies on Fianna Fail and the Government, Mr Ahern still has a significantly higher standing than Opposition leaders.
Some 40 per cent of voters are dissatisfied with Mr Ahern's handling of the allegations made by the Luton property developer, Mr Thomas Gilmartin. They include 25 per cent of Fianna Fail and 58 per cent of PD supporters. Some 37 per cent are satisfied, 57 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters among them, and 23 per cent don't know.
The poll was conducted among a State-wide quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies last Tuesday and Wednesday.
It records the political impact of tribunal-related controversies, such as Mr Charles Haughey's zero tax liability and his relationship with Allied Irish Banks; the alleged payment of £50,000, intended for Fianna Fail, to Mr Padraig Flynn; and the provision of an interest-free loan of £10,000 by a passport investor to Fianna Fail.
The state of the parties, when the 18 per cent undecideds are excluded, is: Fianna Fail 48 per cent, down eight percentage points since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll last October; Fine Gael 25 per cent, up five points, within 10 days of its ardfheis; Labour 14 per cent, up two points, in the wake of the Democratic Left merger; PDs 4 per cent, up two points; Green Party 3 per cent, unchanged; Sinn Fein 2 per cent, down one point; and Others 4 per cent, up two points.
The poll shows a big drop of 10 percentage points in Fianna Fail's core vote. The core party support figures are: Fianna Fail 39 per cent, down 10 percentage points in four months; Fine Gael 20 per cent, up three points; Labour 11 per cent, unchanged; PDs 3 per cent, up one point; Green Party 3 per cent, up one point; Sinn Fein 2 per cent, down one point; Others 4 per cent, up three points. The level of undecideds, at 18 per cent, has increased by five points.
One in five voters, 21 per cent, is dissatisfied with the way the Taoiseach is doing his job, including 6 per cent of Fianna Fail and 23 per cent of PD supporters.
He can take some comfort that he retains the "Teflon factor", with his personal rating of 70 per cent, down 11 percentage points.
The Tanaiste, Ms Harney, has increased her rating by 2 percentage points to 64 per cent, alongside the doubling of the party's support.
The Fine Gael leader, Mr Bruton, has a personal rating of 47 per cent, unchanged over four months. The Labour leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, has increased his rating to 55 per cent, up 4 percentage points.
There has been a significant shift in the level of satisfaction with the Government. It stands at 52 per cent, down 16 percentage points, while the dissatisfaction level is 38 per cent, and 10 per cent don't know. Some 21 per cent of Fianna Fail and 39 per cent of PD supporters are registering dissatisfaction with the Government.
Sixty-one per cent of voters believe the behaviour emerging at the tribunals is common to most politicians; 38 per cent think it is limited to a few senior politicians. Almost four in five voters, 78 per cent, and 74 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters, believe the type of behaviour being revealed at the Flood and Moriarty tribunals still goes on. Only 19 per cent, among them 22 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters, regard it as a thing of the past.
A minority of only 15 per cent of voters believe the tribunals will help restore the public's trust in politics; 46 per cent think they will increase public cynicism; and 38 per cent believe they will make no difference to the way politics is viewed.
Despite the mood in Leinster House, a majority of 51 per cent of voters think an election should be called if the allegations made to the tribunals are proven in the coming weeks. More interestingly, a bigger majority, of 54 per cent, among them 65 per cent of PD supporters, believe an election will be called in such an event.
Asked to list in priority those agencies which they believed should take action on the tribunals' recommendations, some two-thirds of voters, 66 per cent, want Revenue action, followed by Garda action (51 per cent).
