The latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll reveals support for Fianna Fáil has increased by one percentage point to 34 per cent, despite huge economic uncertainty and waning consumer confidence. With Fine Gael unchanged at 31 per cent, there remains very little between the two main parties.
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, when interviewing for this poll was taking place, equity markets were in turmoil and talk of a property market collapse abounded in the media. Against this background, Fianna Fáil may have feared a further drop in support having already lost nine percentage points since the 2007 election. It may therefore come as a relief at one level that the party not only sustained but actually gained support, albeit marginally on this occasion.
Of course, there is a ratings floor for Fianna Fáil held up by core voters below which support is unlikely to dip, even in extremely unfavourable economic times. At a similar stage in the last election cycle in 2003, when the economy was stalling, poll performances of between 30 per cent and 32 per cent for Fianna Fáil were the norm. At 34 per cent in this latest poll, it could be argued therefore that Fianna Fáil is now reasonably close to this floor.
Today's poll findings suggest that there is uncertainty out there about who to blame for our latest woes. In recent weeks, international credit markets have replaced the HSE as the bête noire of Irish voters. Indeed, if voters feel under siege from external events such as the international financial crisis, this could work in Fianna Fáil's favour if it can cement its reputation for strong leadership on economic matters.
If leadership is what the voting public craves, Bertie Ahern undermined his credentials in this regard last summer by announcing his intention not to lead his party into the next election. This poll sees a further drop of three percentage points in satisfaction with the Taoiseach's performance, which drifted to 40 per cent, his second lowest rating since becoming Taoiseach in 1997. Indecision over whether or not to accept a pay increase must have further eroded his leadership credentials.
Queries raised over the Taoiseach's finances remain unanswered, with just 14 per cent of the electorate accepting he has given the full picture. However, a lack of satisfaction with the comprehensiveness of the Taoiseach's explanation does not automatically translate into a desire for him to resign, with voters split on this issue - 44 per cent feel he should resign, while 46 per cent believe he should not resign. There is clearly a sizeable segment of the population that values the Taoiseach's achievements ahead of clarity about his sources of finance.
On the question of whether Ahern should step down or stay on to lead his party into the next election, public opinion is firmly in favour of him stepping down, with 55 per cent of voters expressing this preference.
It will also be hypothesised that the continuing controversy over the Taoiseach's finances is the driving force behind the drop in his satisfaction rating. Intuitively this makes sense, but we know from experience that probing and prodding Ahern over his financial dealings tends to generate more empathy than enmity for the Taoiseach.
Ahern's capacity to attract public sympathy when his finances are under scrutiny is partly explained by the loyalty and affection Fianna Fáil voters hold towards their leader. A majority (58 per cent) of Fianna Fáil voters believe he has further questions to answer regarding his financial affairs, yet an overwhelming 77 per cent feel he should not resign for this reason. Indeed there may be some reluctance among the Fianna Fáil rank and file to see an end to the Ahern era, with 64 per cent wishing him to stay on to lead his party into the next election.
Encouragingly for Fianna Fáil, the decline in satisfaction with the Taoiseach's performance is somewhat compensated for by an improvement in the Tánaiste's rating, up three percentage points to 52 per cent. And it is interesting to note that Brian Cowen's relatively positive standing cannot be ascribed to Fianna Fáil voters (who overwhelmingly support both Ahern and Cowen), but to Fine Gael voters who are dissatisfied with Ahern as Taoiseach but, on balance, are satisfied with Cowen's performance as Tánaiste.
An increase of one percentage point to 6 per cent for the Green Party suggests steady progress for Fianna Fáil's partners in Government. Green Party Ministers have enjoyed a relatively high profile of late, assisted by the innovative and challenging nature of some green policy initiatives. As junior partners in Government compromises have been inevitable, but apparently not to the point that Green supporters are concerned about policies or principles being diluted.
John Gormley's satisfaction rating has increased, by two points to 42 per cent, although so too has his dissatisfaction rating, also up by two points to 30 per cent, with a corresponding drop in "no opinion" responses as voters become more familiar with the Green Party leader.
Interestingly, the PDs have also gained in the polls, up marginally to 3 per cent, an increase of one percentage point. Although this increase is far from being statistically significant, it nonetheless invites a comparison between Paul MacKay's recent letter to PD party members and Michael McDowell's "one-party Government, no thanks" message from 2002, both of which may have had the effect of galvanising support for the PDs around the need for a party of courage and conviction.
Satisfaction with Mary Harney's performance as acting leader of the PDs is holding steady at 35 per cent, with 53 per cent dissatisfied with her performance. It would seem that, from a voter's perspective, the corner has yet to be turned on her reform of the health service.
While each of the Government parties may have recorded marginal increases in support, satisfaction with the performance of the Government has actually fallen to 35 per cent, a decline of two percentage points. This apparent incongruity may be further evidence that voters are confused about where to lay the blame for the economic slowdown.
For the main Opposition parties, Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin, there is a certain deja vu to their latest poll ratings. It seems that each party is returning or has returned to levels of support enjoyed this time last year, before the election campaign entered full swing.
Fine Gael, which bounced back to 31 per cent in October 2007, is unchanged in this January 2008 poll. Although not an obviously impressive performance, the reality is that Fine Gael has recaptured and held the voters it lost prior to the election. If Fine Gael can consolidate this position over the next few years, the next election will be hotly contested.
Satisfaction with Enda Kenny's leadership has retreated one percentage point to 41 per cent, largely due to Labour supporters awarding him a lower rating this time around.
Following the election of Eamon Gilmore, Labour enjoyed a healthy bounce of five percentage points to 15 per cent in the October 2007 poll. Labour has since surrendered some of this gain, down three percentage points to 12 per cent in this latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll. As familiarity with Gilmore has grown, so too has his satisfaction rating, up to 36 per cent, an increase of six percentage points. However, 40 per cent of voters claim to have no opinion regarding his performance and he remains the party leader least familiar to the Irish electorate.
Sinn Féin, too, has moved ahead in the polls, by just one percentage point to 8 per cent, recovering some of the ground lost during the 2007 election campaign. Gerry Adams has picked up seven satisfaction points since last October, rising to 48 per cent and bringing his rating back in line with 2007 levels.
Although there is no evidence in today's poll to indicate that this small increase for Sinn Féin is due to the party's opposition to the Lisbon Treaty, its stance will appeal to a certain cohort, not all of whom will be traditional Sinn Féin voters.
It would be imprudent to draw too many firm conclusions from this latest poll as so little has changed. Perhaps the most relevant insight can be gleaned from the subtle but nevertheless apparent disconnects that are revealed. We have seen support for Fianna Fáil increase while at the same time satisfaction with Bertie Ahern and with the Government has fallen. These disconnects may suggest the fate of Fianna Fáil is no longer bound to that of the Taoiseach, or indeed the economy.