Political Correspondent Deaglán de Bréadúnlooks at how Fianna Fáil strategists and its backroom team evaluated PD unease about staying in government
Fianna Fáil ministers Brian Cowen, Micheál Martin and Dermot Ahern held a private meeting with the Taoiseach at lunchtime yesterday to discuss the fallout from Tánaiste and Progressive Democrat leader Michael McDowell's morning news conference.
Senior party sources said they had no advance knowledge that Mr McDowell would be addressing the news media. There had already been considerable consultation between senior ministers and party officials over the previous 48 hours as it became clear that the PDs were disturbed over leaks from the Mahon tribunal.
The meeting between Bertie Ahern and the three ministers took place in the party's election headquarters in the Treasury Building in downtown Dublin. It was followed by a wider meeting, involving ministers and party officials.
The decision was taken that the Taoiseach would issue a statement in the near future on the "selective" tribunal disclosures but would first of all have to consult his legal advisers. Given the need to take legal advice, it was decided that Ahern would not take part in the Fianna Fáil news conference in the afternoon.
A news conference was originally announced for noon, officially billed as being concerned with economic topics, but after the McDowell media event this was postponed to 3pm and Mahon tribunal issues took up the entire proceedings.
Fianna Fáil sources claim to have been very well informed about developments inside the PDs over the weekend.
At the same time as Sunday papers were going to press with stories about a likely PD withdrawal from government, Fianna Fáil sources were predicting that this was not going to happen.
The Fianna Fáil version of the PDs' deliberations, obviously reflecting a partial and partisan viewpoint, was as follows: McDowell and deputy leader Liz O'Donnell, responding to feedback and sampling of opinion in their own constituencies and concerned about their own electoral prospects, as well as those of the party in general, were eager to make a clean break, but Minister for Health Mary Harney was much more cautious.
As reports of an imminent rupture spread, Fianna Fáil sources claim there was a backlash from PD supporters in provincial towns and rural areas, including some expecting appointments to state boards before the end of this Government's term of office.
By Sunday morning, Fianna Fáil was predicting that, whereas McDowell would not lead a walkout from government, he would indicate very severe difficulty in supporting Mr Ahern for Taoiseach after the election.
Fianna Fáil sources said the entire PD parliamentary party was not present at Saturday's meeting. Some members were consulted over the telephone, with at least four, if not five, TDs opposed to a walkout.
One senior minister complained that since McDowell had taken over as PD leader, Fianna Fáil supporters had started to turn against the coalition arrangement.
Things had been better under Harney and now McDowell was "dragging us down".
Assessing the McDowell news conference, a senior Fianna Fáil source said: "The PDs have placed themselves in a very poor position." True, they had drawn a lot of attention to themselves, "but McDowell couldn't bring the parliamentary party with him". As this party strategist saw it, McDowell was now "talking tough but acting weak".
Nervousness about recent developments was confined to the top levels of Fianna Fáil rather than the grassroots membership. "We're not meeting the issue on the doorsteps."
The so-called "Bertiegate" controversy was having an energising and rallying effect on ordinary party members and even those who had dropped out of party activity. "That's where the poll rise comes from."
Higher levels of the party were more sensitive about the impact media reports could have on the election campaign. Long-standing Fianna Fáil suspicion of the media has resurfaced with dark mutterings about an orchestrated political agenda with a "drip-drip" of leaks to undermine Ahern.
A top party strategist said the "square mile" of Dublin where most media outlets have their offices had a different perspective from people in Belmullet or Tullamore.