CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: DUBLIN SOUTH:IF FIANNA Fáil fails to win a seat in Dublin South, as widely predicted, it would be a dramatic reversal compared to the 2007 election.
Back then, Tom Kitt and the late Séamus Brennan took two seats for the party. Eamon Ryan retained his seat for the Green Party and Alan Shatter took PD Liz O’Donnell’s seat to rejoin party colleague Olivia Mitchell in the Dáil.
With more than 41 per cent of the vote, the formidable Brennan and Kitt machines delivered once more in what was then seen as a Fianna Fáil stronghold.
Brennan died and was replaced by Fine Gael’s George Lee who had a spectacular byelection victory. Lee later resigned from the Dáil and party and returned to RTÉ.
Kitt felt slighted that he was not promoted to the Cabinet and decided to retire at this election.
This time, Fianna Fáil is running just one candidate, Senator Maria Corrigan, in the hope it can salvage a seat in what has become an electoral wasteland for the party.
Although able, personable and hard-working, the consensus is that Corrigan can expect no more than to be one of the players in the dog-fight for the last seat with Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens.
The outcome is further complicated by Independent candidate Senator Shane Ross. His trenchant economic views and pursuit of waste in agencies like Fás have made him popular with voters.
Although without a ready-made organisation, Ross is conducting a strong campaign with his wife, broadcaster Ruth Buchanan, and enthusiastic canvassers.
Ross is expected to take a seat, while Mitchell and Shatter will hold their seats for Fine Gael. Labour Senator Alex White, thwarted in the byelection by Lee, looks set to finally make it to the Dáil.
The battle for the last seat will come down to transfers, with Ryan under pressure to hold on. However his high profile as former minister for communications, energy and natural resources and personal popularity may not be enough to save him as the Greens plummet in the polls.
Corrigan is expected to have a respectable first preference vote, but she could find it difficult to secure sufficient transfers to win a seat.
White’s running mate, Aidan Culhane, should not be underestimated, given his long and impressive track record in local politics. He finished second in first preferences, with 2,727 votes, in the Dundrum electoral area in the 2009 local elections.
Fine Gael’s third candidate, Peter Mathews, a chartered accountant, is well known for his media appearances as an economics commentator. If Fine Gael’s advance continues Mathews could take the seat, restoring Fine Gael’s primacy in the constituency with three seats.
Nothing can be taken for granted though in this unpredictable constituency.
DUBLIN SOUTH: 5 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs:Tom Kitt (FF), Olivia Mitchell (FG), Alan Shatter (FG), Eamon Ryan (GP).
CANDIDATES: Maria Corrigan (FF), Alan Shatter (FG), Olivia Mitchell (FG), Peter Mathews (FG), Alex White (Lab), Aidan Culhane (Lab), Eamon Ryan (GP), Sorcha Nic Cormaic (SF), Jane Murphy (CSP), Nicola Curry (ULA), Shane Ross (Ind), Gerard P Dolan (Ind), John Anthony Doyle (Ind), Hamed Buhidma Hussein (Ind), Eamonn Zaidan (Ind), Raymond Patrick Whitehead (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:The disastrous state of the economy and how Ireland can recover. Unemployment and emigration. Anti-social behaviour in some areas.
VERDICT: FG 3, Lab 1, Ind 1
