CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Cavan-Monaghan: Ó Caoláin is hoping for a repeat performance of his poll-topping 1997 performance writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
Fianna Fáil is being given no chance of winning back the seat it lost to Sinn Féin in Cavan-Monaghan in the last election.
There was a time when the constituency was as reliable as Laois-Offaly in returning three Fianna Fáil TDs. At one time, two of its then TDs, Dr Rory O'Hanlon and Mr John Wilson, were government ministers. But that vice-like grip on the three seats was broken in 1997, when Sinn Féin's Mr Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin who topped the poll with an impressive 11,531 first preferences..
Ms Ann Leonard, daughter of the long-serving retiring TD, Mr Jimmy Leonard, was the victim of the Sinn Féin landslide. The party's two other TDs, Dr O'Hanlon and Mr Brendan Smith, held their seats. Ms Leonard was later nominated to the Seanad by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, but she later decided not to contest this election.
Fianna Fáil's third candidate this time is Monaghan town-based Mr Robbie Gallagher, a cousin of the Minister for Tourism, Sport and Recreation, Dr McDaid. With Dr O'Hanlon, who was Leas Cheann Comhairle in the last Dáil, and Mr Smith well established in the constituency, they seem set to retain their seats. Mr Smith, a protégé of Mr Wilson, is being tipped for ministerial promotion if Fianna Fáil returns to power.
The two outgoing Fine Gael TDs, Mr Andrew Boylan and Mr Seymour Crawford, also look secure. Last time, the party ran four candidates, operating a successful transfer pact. In this election, it is running three, the outgoing TDs and Cavan-based Mr Paddy O'Reilly who polled 4,532 first preferences in 1997.
Labour once held ambitions to win a seat in Cavan-Monaghan, fostered mainly by the dramatic national swing to the party in the "Spring tide" of 1992. But its candidate, Ms Ann Gallagher, a member of the outgoing Seanad, saw the Labour vote decline in 1997 from 8.28 per cent to 3.96 per cent. All that the Labour candidate this time, Cavan-based Mr Des Cullen, can hope for is to embark on rebuilding a base for the party in the constituency.
Mr Ó Caoláin, meanwhile, will be hoping for a repeat performance of his poll-topping 1997 performance in an election where the party believes he will be joined by a number of other Sinn Féin TDs from around the State. The party's strength in the constituency is reflected in the fact that it has a total of eight county councillors between the two counties.
Mr Ó Caoláin has had an active five years in the Dáil, advocating his party's views as its lone voice in the Oireachtas. His profile has increased significantly, but his position at the top of the poll could be under pressure in circumstances where there is a significant national swing to Fianna Fáil.
The PD candidate is Mr Gerry McCaughey.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 2, SF 1. No change.