The truth is out about Ireland's unsustainable patterns of development. It makes a nonsense of planning guidelines intended to contain the Dublin sprawl, writes Frank McDonald, Environment Editor
What will Martin Cullen have to say this morning about the stark facts revealed in the preliminary report of Census 2002? He will be unveiling the Government's latest strategy on sustainable development, yet the census shows the pattern of development here is anything but sustainable.
The Minister for the Environment will no doubt refer to the fact that the long-delayed National Spatial Strategy is currently being finalised, with the aim of achieving more balanced regional development. The strategy will supposedly be adopted by the Government in September - in other words, "Watch this space".
But neither he nor the Government can change the facts, as illustrated by the census figures. Because what they show is that much of the recent population growth is happening in the wrong places, confirming the worst fears about the sprawl of Dublin into surrounding counties and further afield.
Though the population of Dublin city and county grew by 6.1 per cent since 1996, this increase is not only less than the national average - a surprise in itself - but it is also eclipsed by much larger percentage increases in the populations of Meath and Kildare as well as Westmeath, Wicklow, Wexford, Laois, Louth and Carlow.
The populations of Kildare and Meath both increased by over a fifth between 1996 and 2002. Other Leinster counties which showed large increases were Westmeath (up 13.8 per cent), Wicklow (up 11.7 per cent), Wexford (up 11 .7 per cent), Laois (up 10.9 per cent), Louth (up 10.5 per cent) and Carlow (up 10.2 per cent).
The increases recorded for these counties mask even more spectacular levels of population growth in particular areas. For example, the number of people living in and around Ratoath, Co Meath, well within the Dublin commuter belt but not designated as a growth centre, rose by a staggering 82.3 per cent. Other significant Leinster hot-spots - in descending order - include Navan Rural (up 53.6 per cent); Mullingar Rural (47.6 per cent); Dunboyne (up 41.7 per cent); Portlaoise Rural (up 41.0 per cent); Newbridge Urban (up 31.9 per cent); Naas Urban (up 31.0 per cent); and Celbridge (up 27.9 per cent).
Only three of these growth areas have a reliable train service, so it may be safely assumed that most of the new inhabitants are commuting by car to the Greater Dublin Area, adding to congestion on the M50 and other routes. The same is true of commuters living even further away, in Carlow, Longford and Wexford.
All of this makes nonsense of the GDA Strategic Planning Guidelines, which envisaged that most of Dublin's growth would be accommodated in the metropolitan area or in designated growth centres in its hinterland (i.e. Meath, Kildare and Wicklow). Mullingar, Portlaoise and Ratoath do not fall into that category.
Within Dublin, the Esker area of Lucan had the largest increase in the State, with its population nearly trebling in six years. Elsewhere in the suburbs, the population rose by 61.9 per cent in the Blakestown area of Blanchardstown, with smaller increases recorded for Knockmaroon, Lissenhall, Jobstown, Glencullen and Firhouse.
On a more positive note, the census provides more concrete evidence of the reversal of historic population decline in the inner city. Most of its wards recorded increases, of which the most spectacular were Ushers A (up 99.8 per cent), Rotunda A (up 69.2 per cent), North City (up 65.9 per cent) and Royal Exchange A (up 57.3 per cent).
But these gains were offset by falling population levels in more mature suburban areas with ageing profiles, such as Beaumont (down 12 per cent), Finglas South D (down 17.5 per cent), Grange C (down 14 per cent), Whitehall D (down 15.5 per cent) and Mount Town Dún Laoghaire (down 14.2 per cent).
Even newer suburbs are beginning to see their population levels fall, largely due to the "empty nest" syndrome as young people grow up and leave home. These include the Ludford area of Ballinteer (down 12.3 per cent), the Rowlagh area of Clondalkin (down 14.2 per cent) and the Millbrook area of Tallaght (down 13.4 per cent).
Throughout the State, as the revealing map by the Central Statistics Office shows, the explosion of one-off houses in the countryside is graphically confirmed. Large parts of Galway appear to have been colonised by bungalows, as well as west Mayo, north Donegal, north and south Wexford, east Clare and south Cavan.
The pattern of settlement in Ireland is an indictment of decades of failure to plan on a rational basis where people should live, in tandem with developing public transport. Indeed, the figures revealed by the census show how high a mountain the planners will have to climb to make any sense of a spatial strategy.